Trade Ideas for Halloween

Today was a nice inside day, taking a breather after a multi-day rally. The question now is whether we take off immediately or pull back some more before taking off. On the one hand, the mood has palpably changed; an abrupt shift from fear to greed. Many charts were up 10+%, among these issues from the most speculative sectors (e.g., FSLR). On the other hand, we are entering a bear market rally phase, not a go-go-go bull, so it follows that further pullback comes before further gain. Keep in mind also that the same setup happened about a week ago (the 20th), only that time the rally turned out to be a spasm within a basing pattern. Observe the similarities in this chart of SSO (2x S&P 500):


The setup this time is much improved, but there's nothing that says the same fake-out breakout won't happen tomorrow, followed by another swoon. However, in this game, you have to play each opportunity. If you played on the 20th/21st, you have to play tomorrow. As long as you respect your sell-stops and get out early, you have the luxury of testing the waters many times over until the rally finally sticks.

I warned yesterday to avoid the open, and sure enough both ideas from yesterday triggered in the first 45 minutes only to fade the rest of the day. If you stayed away but still want in, my entry price for AMAT is 12.21 and for GOOG 368.71. These are buy-stop prices, meaning the market price has to trade up to that level before I'd buy.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
PQ	8.07	9.66	+19.7%	8.36	None	Chart
AMAT	12.47	12.08	-3.1%	11.84	None	Chart
GOOG	371.01	359.69	-3.1%	346.19	Consider selling on a close < 354	Chart

A bunch of ETFs for tomorrow. This is in case we don't get that pullback and instead just take off from here.

Trade Ideas for 10/31/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SSO (Ultra S&P 500)	32.31	29.58	27.49	Chart
XLK (Technology ETF)	16.92	16.27	15.74	Chart
SLV (Silver ETF)	10.07	9.44	8.69	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.