Trade Ideas for 07/31/09

Not long after my intraday post, there was indeed a final push to new highs at S&P 997, followed by what looked like consolidation. But maybe people started getting nervous approaching the big round number of 1,000, because the last half hour featured a rather swift drop. Today may have marked the blow-off top; we'll see tomorrow or next week whether the bulls can push it to even higher highs and extend the blow-off. However, a break below the 970 level would mark the end of the rally from July 8th (although not necessarily the larger rally from March 6). We bought TQNT, COF, and CWTR today, and sold AHL.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	7.11	6.82	-4.1%	6.65	N/A	Chart
COF	30.81	30.41	-1.3%	29.20	N/A	Chart
CWTR	6.87	7.17	+4.4%	6.49	N/A	Chart

Setups in the short ETFs look cleaner than the ones for long entries, so that's where most of tomorrow's ideas are.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas)	17.78	16.65	N/A	Chart
GLL (Ultrashort Gold)	15.27	14.85	N/A	Chart
FXP (Ultrashort Xinhua China 25)	10.36	9.48	N/A	Chart
KBH (KB Home)	17.06	16.15	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Dangerous levels

Blow-off top may have just occurred—any new positions taken today, look to exit some or all on the next push above the highs (currently at 995.35 for S&P)

Trade Ideas for 07/30/09

A very similar script for the third or fourth session in a row—initial downward trend and ultimately a reversal. Price has stayed in a narrow range, and could break either way when it's time. My observation is that this market doesn't want to go down yet, which lends more credibility to the blow-off top scenario. In other news, China's market took a 5% dive and took MPEL down with it. We also lost DNN. After giving us a few weeks of easy trades, the market's suddenly gotten tough.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.78	+10.0%	25.62	N/A	Chart

Still looking to play some quick longs, without risking much. TZA, once again, shouldn't be held overnight if elected.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TQNT (TriQuint Semiconductor)	7.11	6.65	N/A	Chart
KBH (KB Home)	17.06	16.20	N/A	Chart
COF (Capital One)	30.81	29.20	N/A	Chart
CWTR (Coldwater Creek)	6.87	6.49	N/A	Chart
TZA (Small Cap Bear 3x)	17.76	16.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/29/09

The market wobbled today but hasn't yet lost its footing. In fact, the back-and-forth of the past few sessions could be setting up a base from which a rally might spring. Out of congestion zones come big moves (in either direction), but the question is when [Edit: also which way!].

We lost a few positions today in the chop: MTL for a profit, SLV and RIMM for losses. It may turn out to be a good thing if the next direction is down. But just in case it's up, there's a new batch of long ideas for tomorrow.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	26.15	+11.6%	25.49	N/A	Chart
DNN	1.81	1.72	-5.0%	1.64	N/A	Chart
MPEL	5.43	5.60	+3.1%	5.15	N/A	Chart

Along with the greater-than-normal number of longs is a short, TZA. If elected, don't hold overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
COF (Capital One)	30.81	29.31	N/A	Chart
ATHR (Atheros Communication)	24.96	23.49	N/A	Chart
CWTR (Coldwater Creek)	6.87	6.45	N/A	Chart
EXM (Excel Maritime)	9.51	8.74	N/A	Chart
CBAK (China BAK Battery)	3.48	3.19	N/A	Chart
TZA (Small Cap Bear 3x)	18.17	16.87	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/28/09

The market ground higher today, but never got near its overnight high—those of you who have access to futures charts may have noticed that overnight the S&P futures hit 984, implying a price of about 987-8 in the cash index (S&P proper). This still has the potential to go parabolic, but it needs to stop grinding and start soaring soon. Let the market prove it can pull off such a feat by clearing today's high tomorrow, or at least staying above today's lows.

We bought all of yesterday's ideas, except for CPSL, which gapped up above our buy price. We sold FAS at the end of the day for a profit of about a dollar per share. Coincidentally, that was about the amount of profit we got on today's sale of TSL, too.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	26.06	+11.2%	25.45	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	11.33	+23.3%	10.29	N/A	Chart
SLV	13.56	13.84	+2.1%	13.49	N/A	Chart
DNN	1.81	1.81	0	1.64	N/A	Chart
MPEL	5.43	5.53	+1.8%	5.15	N/A	Chart
RIMM	77.81	77.54	-0.3%	75.75	N/A	Chart

Let's see if the market can do it. If it can't, be prepared to get stopped out of all your positions. On the short side, TZA would work on a market collapse, but be sure to sell it by the close in any case. This is another one that we're not holding overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
PCU (Southern Copper)	26.01	25.19	N/A	Chart
IBM	118.16	116.49	N/A	Chart
AIR (AAR Corp.)	19.23	18.44	N/A	Chart
FCL (Foundation Coal)	36.47	33.93	N/A	Chart
TZA (Small Cap Bear 3x)	18.17	16.92	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/27/09

The market broke above the Thursday highs, and by my count it appears to be in the final stages of the rally from July 8th. But "final stages" means the 5th wave of the 5th wave, and oftentimes this results in a blow-off top. So the potential for quick, big gains exists this week, but by the same token it's likely that the rally ends as well. Let's see what the market gives us.

We sold CFSG for a rather large profit, especially given the short holding period.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.85	+10.3%	25.45	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	10.25	+11.5%	9.37	N/A	Chart
SLV	13.56	13.66	+0.7%	13.20	N/A	Chart
TSL	29.51	31.10	+5.4%	30.49	N/A	Chart

We're going to play it a bit fast and loose. Tomorrow's ideas have a history of running big and falling big. You don't need to risk a lot on them, but let's see if we can capitalize on a potential blow-off 5th of 5th. If FAS is elected and you don't get stopped out by the close, sell it. We are not holding that one overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FAS (Financial Bull 3x)	52.51	49.49	N/A	Chart
DNN (Denison Mines)	1.81	1.64		Chart
MPEL (Melco PBL)	5.43	5.15	N/A	Chart
CPSL (China Precision Steel)	2.76	2.59	N/A	Chart
RIMM (Research in Motion)	77.81	75.23	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Idea for 07/24/09

After moving over the prior highs early in the session, the market really took off. There was a reason I made that very observation yesterday, and it had to do with the choppiness of the sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday. The charts suggested to me that Wave 4 had completed, and perhaps Wave 5 had as well. This was the picture as of yesterday's close:

The question mark marked the spot. Either all of Wave 5 was done, or just 1 of 5. Sure enough, it was the latter, and today we rode Wave 3 of 5 up, up and away. Only now we're facing a similar set of circumstances as yesterday's close. Wave 3 of 5 certainly looks like it's done, but it's also possible we got a truncated 5th and the entire up move is now done. Like yesterday, it depends on whether we can get above today's high. Even if we can, the juiciest part of the rally looks to be over (but this market could surprise with a blow-off 5th of 5th as well).

We bought SLV and TSL today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	14.88	+20.4%	14.49	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.93	+10.7%	24.96	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	10.22	+11.2%	9.37	N/A	Chart
SLV	13.56	13.52	-0.3%	13.20	N/A	Chart
TSL	29.51	30.21	+2.4%	27.83	N/A	Chart

Not a lot for tomorrow, and if you bought SLV today you might want to hold off.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
PAAS (Pan American Silver)	20.31	18.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.