Wave 5 of this pattern (which began one month ago; trends often run in a 4-week cycle) began this past Monday (9/15), and it has already traced out a 5-wave pattern in these 3 short days. Based upon my read of the charts, I'm going to close my short positions tomorrow, maybe in the first 30 minutes. There is always the possibility that the chart will do a 5th wave extension and go much, much higher, so I might hold a partial to the sell-stop. Conversely there is the possibility that the market will decide to rally right from the start, in which case I'll be stopped out immediately. We won't know until we know, but my feeling is that we may be at a temporary bottom, and I'd rather just book my profits and step aside.
| Current Holdings | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Basis | Closing Price |
Perf. | Sell-Stop | Additional Exit Guideline | Chart |
| SDS | 67.81 | 77.82 | +14.8% | 74.37 | If you can, follow along on the 1- or 5- or 15-minute chart, and sell on a violation of the prior bar/candle low. For SDS on the 15-minute chart, that would mean the sell-stop is at 76.67. | Chart |
Gold had a fabulous day, and my big heartbreak was that I entered a sizable order to buy DGP at 16.13 stop 16.11. Price got to 16.10 and then jumped right to 16.14, and I didn't get any shares. It closed at 19.50, so I missed out on 3.36/share in profits for wanting to save a penny. My fault for not being more generous on the stop-limit spread, and once again for not buying at market when price gapped above my limit price; but I don't care to chase them. What a way, though, for gold to announce that it's back in play!
| Ticker | Entry | Exit A | Exit C | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVL (LIN TV) | 6.06 | 5.64 | 5.21 | Chart |
| MWA (Mueller Water) | 10.83 | 9.96 | 9.75 | Chart |
Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.
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