Trade Ideas for 9/30/08

Surprise, surprise! The bailout was a bust. And assuming things stay this way, we can finally get to the business of deflating the credit bubble. Too bad it will have to take the form of the most severe credit crunch in several generations, but we are reaping what the Fed and the GSEs have sown over many, many years.

Commodities sank as a result, with the exception of gold. Even silver sank, meaning people must really have wanted the yellow stuff. We were officially stopped out of DBA, and unofficially out of the other two holdings (going by yesterday's exit guidelines.)

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SLW	10.21	8.62	-15.6%	7.99	at this point, you're either in it till it's official, or you're out	Chart
SIGA	4.01	3.78	-5.7%	3.19	Consider selling on a negative close	Chart

Panic means opportunity. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon. I hope you are mostly in cash waiting for opportunities to present themselves. My ideas for tomorrow are some early nibbles; don't bet a lot on them. The first two ideas are low-volume to boot.

Trade Ideas for 9/30/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
VM (Virgin Mobile)	3.02	2.78	2.58	Chart
RATE (Bankrate)	39.81	36.49	33.44	Chart
ABX (Barrick Gold)	39.61	35.92	32.95	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.