Trade Ideas for 12/11/08

Today was a big day for commodities. Coal miners and gold miners and the oil patch all did phenomenally well. The rest of the market continued consolidating, which I interpret as a bullish sign. I think of the consolidation period as a kind of coiling, so that when the next move does take place, its magnitude will be fueled by the length of the base. Of course, my read is that the next move will be upward, but if that turns out to be incorrect, the rule of thumb about the move's magnitude still applies.

We bought MELI and PNK today. PNK triggered early on, and very briefly, so I'm not sure anyone actually purchased it. Just in case, I'm including it in the table. If you didn't buy and want to, buy tomorrow at 6.83 or higher, risking to 6.19. I'm using tight sell-stops for all of the holdings that we bought prior to today. My feeling is, it's up or out for these positions, given that there's a sizable move coming. I also provide looser stops in the Guideline column, in case you'd rather allow them some more wiggle room.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
AN	7.01	10.27	+46.5%	9.56	Looser sell-stop: 8.46	Chart
DAL	8.88	11.00	+23.9%	10.49	Looser sell-stop: 9.89	Chart
ORI	10.01	9.78	-2.3%	9.37	Looser sell-stop: 8.98	Chart
JWN	13.06	12.99	-0.6%	12.34	Looser sell-stop: 11.25	Chart
MELI	16.12	15.69	-2.7%	13.88	N/A	Chart
PNK	6.81	6.62	-2.8%	6.19	N/A	Chart

Just as yesterday, I wouldn't discourage taking on more risk with tomorrow's trade ideas.

Trade Ideas for 12/11/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
PAG (Penske Auto Group)	8.06	7.33	6.94	Chart
FLR (Fluor)	53.26	49.42	N/A	Chart
LIHR (Lihir Gold)	16.21	14.88	14.46	Chart
ANSS (Ansys)	30.72	28.93	30.72	Chart
SFI (iStar Financial)	1.96	1.65	1.49	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.