Trade Ideas for 02/20/09

The silent slide continues, as new 52-week lows are hit in the Dow. The market is in the final stages of heading toward its bottom, and it's in the final stages that the speed picks up. In the coming days, possibly tomorrow, we might get a relief rally (as mentioned yesterday), but such a rally is not an opportunity to go long unless you're planning a 1- or 2-day trade. Let's stick with our short positions.

We were stopped out of PAAS today, and bought EWV. I forgot to check the average volume on EWV, and it's terrible. I should not have highlighted it yesterday; low-volume issues are just too difficult to get into and out of. As such, the official line is to sell EWV tomorrow.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
DOG	75.51	78.95	+4.6%	74.22	Consider selling on a close < 77.45	Chart
RWM	73.96	75.85	+2.6%	72.69	Consider selling on a close < 73.66	Chart
EWV	94.14	98.00	+4.0%	SELL	n/a	Chart

Switching gears a bit, I have some counter-trend ideas for tomorrow: long oil and short gold. These have a high risk of failure because they are countertrend, so don't risk a lot. Gold, in particular, may have another leg up left, but DZZ is flashing a friendly setup. Target for both ideas is the 50-day moving average.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO)	2.11	1.72	N/A	Chart
Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)	20.46	19.53	19.23	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.