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Thursday, October 1, 2009

Update 10/02/09

Today's action looks pretty stark on the daily chart: a red Marubozu candle 25 S&P points in length, strongly suggesting the end of the rally from March. Next stop: the 50-day moving average at 1020.

The intraday action, however, was a slow melt-down that seemed like it could bounce at any time. Prices appeared to stabilize around 1:30 ET, but in the last ten minutes, prices plummeted to new lows.

This kind of action is deceptive, as prices fall slowly but steadily, never quite making a higher high or higher low. Before you know it, the market's down 2.5%. After offering such big bounces the past few days, naturally the market didn't allow any today. If the market is very serious, we may not see a bounce tomorrow, either. Let's see how it all shakes out.

We sold SSO and AMCC, our remaining longs, for losses today. To lock in some of today's gains in our short positions, consider setting sell-stops on partial positions (say 20%) at the low tick for the stock (e.g., 23.14 for QID).

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Addl Exit Guideline Chart
FXP 8.96 10.39 +16.0% 9.39 N/A Chart
SRS 9.56 10.51 +9.9% 9.05 N/A Chart
DUG 14.31 15.34 +7.2% 14.76 N/A Chart
SKF 25.11 26.95 +7.4% 23.99 N/A Chart
QID 23.17 24.34 +5.0% 22.56 N/A Chart
TWM 28.06 30.42 +8.4% 27.27 N/A Chart

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