Trade Ideas for 01/30/09

While I thought it was unlikely that we'd get much higher before a pullback, it would've been nice if the sellers eased up a little and gave us a mild consolidation day. Instead, we got a furious sell-off, and tomorrow looks like it's do-or-die for this budding rally, simply because there's not much room on the downside!

What's encouraging is that the Nasdaq's pullback did fit the "mild consolidation" bill—it closed above support—and we did have three up days in a row before this pullback. So let's see if the bulls will only let it be a one-day thing. If not, time to get defensive and seriously consider the possibility of imminent new lows (depending on how much lower the market closes).

No new holdings, and by Friday's close we will have to sell BEAV because it reports earnings on Monday. A real shame because this chart looks like it has great potential. In fact I had it at the top of my preliminary list for tomorrow, but earnings risk is simply too high.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BEAV	9.07	9.87	+8.8%	9.56	Close position by end of day	Chart
AAPL	90.01	93.00	+3.3%	89.73	Consider selling on a close < 92.60	Chart
ICO	2.53	2.62	+3.6%	2.45	Consider selling on a close < 2.57	Chart
IVN	3.01	2.82	-6.3%	2.59	Consider selling on a close < 2.81	Chart
TWC	18.93	19.32	+2.1%	18.79	Consider selling on a close < 19.05	Chart

For tomorrow, let's stick with strength, Nasdaq stocks.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
QQQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)	30.66	29.47	N/A	Chart
EXPE (Expedia)	9.44	8.91	8.60	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/29/09

Today the market gapped and ran, only letting up for about an hour as it digested the Fed's announcement. Most charts closed near their highs of the day.

We sold SH early for a larger-than-budgeted loss as it gapped down. We bought TWC, but EWC gapped too high and didn't pull back enough, so it's left off our roster of holdings.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BEAV	9.07	10.36	+14.2%	9.56	N/A	Chart
AAPL	90.01	94.20	+4.7%	89.73	N/A	Chart
ICO	2.53	2.70	+6.7%	2.45	N/A	Chart
IVN	3.01	2.94	-2.3%	2.59	N/A	Chart
TWC	18.93	19.53	+3.2%	18.79	Consider booking some profit at the 50-day moving average around 19.76	Chart

Not many charts have the setup I'm looking for since they ran so high today. Here are a couple I found.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TV (Grupo Televisa)	15.51	14.68	14.32	Chart
CSIQ (Canadian Solar)	5.86	5.45	5.02	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/28/09

After inching up the past couple sessions, the market heard some rumors after-hours that it really, really liked, namely that the US government (in other words, its people) would be buying distressed debt from banks. Although you and I might not like owning our neighbors' defaulted mortgages, the market certainly likes that we do, and so the financial sector roared higher after hours. Financials are set to gap up on the open. Since they were the main problem weighing the market down, it would seem that a rally is in the offing, especially given the recent upward drift.

Not so fast, though. Tomorrow, at around 2:15pm ET, the Fed makes their statement (FOMC announcement). This bi-monthly (give or take) event tends to act as a catalyst for extreme market volatility. It can cause V reversals and wild whipsaws. I plan to reduce positions in the hours leading up to the announcement, and I might wait on new ideas until after the dust settles.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SH	79.23	76.23	-3.8%	75.49	N/A	Chart
BEAV	9.07	9.35	+3.1%	8.31	N/A	Chart
AAPL	90.01	90.73	+0.8%	86.49	N/A	Chart
ICO	2.53	2.70	+6.7%	2.23	N/A	Chart
IVN	3.01	2.88	-4.3%	2.59	N/A	Chart

If you decide to elect new positions in the morning, consider reducing prior to the announcement. You can always re-elect after the announcement is made.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TWC (Time Warner Cable)	18.93	18.22	17.99	Chart
EWC (iShares Canada)	17.16	16.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/27/09

After a strong start, bullish enthusiasm got ahead of itself and markets pulled back. The good news is, the pullback wasn't severe, and major indices closed positively. Perhaps this is enough for the bulls to mount a campaign Tuesday; we'll see.

The day's range was wide enough that we lost a long and a short. All of yesterday's ideas were elected early on. Into the second week of a narrow range, it's still a grind.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SH	79.23	77.06	-2.7%	75.32	N/A	Chart
BEAV	9.07	8.97	-1.1%	8.31	N/A	Chart
AAPL	90.01	89.64	-0.4%	86.49	N/A	Chart
ICO	2.53	2.46	-2.8%	2.13	Consider selling on a close < 2.27	Chart
IVN	3.01	3.05	+1.3%	2.59	N/A	Chart

A couple longs in case the market gets going to the upside. If you already own some longs, no need to take on more, as nothing much has changed.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
CSIQ (Canadian Solar)	5.96	5.05	N/A	Chart
PBR (Petrobras)	25.46	24.04	22.91	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/26/09

The market's in one of those situations where an equal number of people ardently believe that it's finished a final correction and will soon slingshot higher as believe that it's about to break down to new lows. Recent history (i.e., last summer) suggests the latter course, but the market is famous for defying patterns and taking off in a new direction. For example, did anyone notice that the gold-dollar link has been turned upside down? Both have been rising, whereas the pattern had been for the two to have an inverse relationship.

Who knows which direction the market will pick next? Is the bad news now accounted for in the collapsed stock prices, or is there far worse to come? Is that a bull flag on the chart of the S&P, or is it a descent in progress? It just comes down to how you look at it. Kinda like the picture above. (What do you see, a young woman or an old crone?)

What I do is wait for the market to make a move and then jump aboard. Unfortunately, in the chop of the past week we've gotten fake-outs from both the long and short side, so now we are positioned in anticipation of what's to come, rather than being on the sidelines until something happens. Nevertheless, the right attitude to take amidst the uncertainty is to wait and see. Make sure to sell at the sell-stop and keep both the bullish and bearish possibilities in mind.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
DOG	75.33	74.10	-1.6%	72.77	N/A	Chart
SH	79.23	77.58	-2.1%	75.32	N/A	Chart
AER	6.21	5.83	-6.1%	5.29	N/A	Chart
BEAV	9.07	9.04	-0.3%	8.31	N/A	Chart

The current holdings list is starting to look redundant (SH & DOG, AER & BEAV), so here are some totally different ideas for Monday.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
IVN (Ivanhoe Mines)	3.01	2.59	N/A	Chart
AAPL (Apple)	90.01	86.49	N/A	Chart
ICO (International Coal)	2.53	2.27	2.13	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/23/09

Despite the wide range, today's prices were within the bounds of yesterday's highs and lows, making it an inside consolidation day. While the market could still break to the upside, time is running out.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BEAV	9.07	8.87	-2.2%	8.14	N/A	Chart
SH	79.23	77.78	-1.8%	75.32	N/A	Chart
AER	6.21	5.90	-4.9%	5.29	N/A	Chart

Although we're down in our current holdings, their charts look good; it just depends on which way the market breaks. Tomorrow's ideas are essentially duplicates of our current holdings (note that AER and BEAV are both airline-related), with DOG instead of SH for the short-side bet. I don't recommend doubling down on your positions; these ideas are only good if you don't have a position in them yet. This is because I don't think it's time to take on more risk. The market has yet to indicate which direction it will take.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
AER (AerCap)	6.32	5.69	5.29	Chart
DOG (Short Dow)	75.33	72.77	72.42	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/22/09

After a bad open, the market started climbing out of the hole it had dug for itself. While it's still a LONG way to the top of the pit, it's possible that the financials put in a double bottom yesterday and will proceed to do a fast rally to the 50-day moving average, bringing the rest of the market with it. The other possibility is the one spelled out by the main trend so far this year: further downside, with today's action being nothing more than a oversold bounce. While I give this scenario the edge, both are valid. We'll see if this rally has legs in the coming sessions.

We had a dramatic reversal of fortune in our current holdings, as loser became winner and vice versa. We also acquired a new holding.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BEAV	9.07	9.14	+0.7%	8.14	N/A	Chart
SH	79.23	76.69	-3.2%	75.32	N/A	Chart
AER	6.21	6.27	+1.0%	5.29	N/A	Chart

Sticking with the idea that the market could go either way, I'm giving SMN another shot but also highlighting GTI, which, while technically not a component of the index that SMN is short, would not be out of place in that index.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials)	44.33	39.28	37.33	Chart
GTI (Graftech)	8.74	7.81	6.80	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/21/09

Just when it looked like things might turn out for the better, further financial weakness laid low the market. On the charts of the major indices, we had a significant breakdown today, and further downside is favored. Overall the action resembles that of last summer, when prices inched higher over the course of a couple months, only to plunge to new depths in a matter of weeks. Still, news can move this market either way, so it pays to remain cautious. Today we sold MR and bought SH. Meanwhile BEAV is hanging on by a thread.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BEAV	9.07	8.15	-10.1%	7.99	N/A	Chart
SH	79.23	80.29	+1.3%	75.32	N/A	Chart

While it sure seems like the crash will continue, this market has pulled some sharp reversals in the recent past. With that in mind, the ideas for tomorrow include a short and a long.

Trade Ideas for 01/21/09

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas	28.39	25.19	24.66	Chart
AER (AerCap)	6.21	5.33	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/20/09

Friday's session started with a bang as the market gapped up, but it wasn't to be. Following a straight-line move to the low of the day mid-day, prices formed a V-bottom and spent the rest of the session trying to get back to the opening highs.

The market looks weak right now, and this drawn-out, essentially sideways action just reminds me of the action last summer. The possibility of a new low, lower than the the one put in from November, remains in play. However, we're entering a crucial period, as major events such as the inauguration and talk of further government intervention solutions to the economic problems means the market can break hard either way. If we get an Inauguration rally, I would use that opportunity to take some profit and possibly buy some puts on the indices; recall how strong the Election Night rally was, and how that marked a peak in price that we still haven't gotten above.

We sold SMN Friday; as expected bullish short-term strength meant the optimal time to sell had past. On a rally I'd recommend booking some profit on our new holdings, perhaps at the market close on Tuesday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
MR	21.81	20.91	-4.1%	19.99	Consider booking some profit on strength	Chart
BEAV	9.07	9.07	0	7.99	Consider booking some profit on strength	Chart

No trading Monday, MLK holiday. For Tuesday, a couple long ideas that might work out for a short, 1-2 day hold, and in case we get an Inauguration Day crash, a short, but a holder.

Trade Ideas for 01/20/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
LCAPA (Liberty Media (Capital))	5.76	5.12	4.62	Chart
AEO (American Eagle)	10.63	9.69	8.99	Chart
SH (Short S&P 500)	79.23	75.32	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/16/09

Some high drama in the equity markets today. The day began with steep selling right at the open, taking the market down to levels not seen since the huge crash of late November. This was followed by an even steeper ascent to new highs for the day. In the last hour, the markets turned again, and yes, it was steep. This kind of action you won't see every Thursday, but if it were to happen on any day of the week, I'd place my bets on Thursday.

SMN nearly hit its 50-day moving average, then sold off hard. Short-term momentum is with the bulls right now, so I would look to sell the position if the market allows it a bounce to the $42 level. New highs in SMN (and therefore lows in the major indices) are looking less likely given the very sharp drop from today's high (10% in 2 hours). But you never know.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SMN	40.31	40.65	+0.8%	37.97	Consider selling on strength	Chart

It feels like the market has turned at least a temporary corner. Even if it turns out the market was able to dig in its heels this afternoon, it's still a long way from these levels back up to the highs of January 6th, which we'd have to break to confirm a pivot. The following ideas might work out for a couple days, but in the event I'd look to book at least some profit pre-emptively. After a nice little uptrend to close out 2008 and ring in 2009, the market is back to acting like it's October/November.

Trade Ideas for 01/16/09

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
MR (Mindray Medical)	21.81	19.99	N/A	Chart
BEAV (BE Aerospace)	9.07	7.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Update for 01/15/09

With today's very consistent action (a Wednesday hallmark), the market is indicating that it's in breakdown mode. It's prepared to go lower, and the bad news has not been priced in. Whether the November lows are even the lows for this part of the cycle is now in question.

We sold our last long position today, and our portfolio now consists of a single short-biased position.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SMN	40.31	42.28	+4.9%	37.97	N/A	Chart

I'm going to sit the next one out, maintaining a bearish bias with our short ETF. Charts are not looking the way I like.

Trade Ideas for 01/14/09

Late post, so I'll keep it brief. We got a slightly lower low today, but a mildly strong finish means the December lows remain intact. Just really choppy trading, and we lost CZZ for a loss today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BKS	18.17	18.15	-0.1%	17.37	N/A	Chart

I've got one idea for each side, depending on which way the market will break.

Trade Ideas for 01/14/09

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
BRCD (Brocade)	3.89	3.61	3.56	Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials)	40.31	37.97	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/13/09

Well, it sure seems like the 2009 honeymoon is over. We have a little bit of breathing room before this current downleg takes out the prior higher low from late December. So either the market starts rising from the get-go tomororw, or else we are looking at a lot of downside. Anything can happen, but time is running out.

DZZ gapped over the buy price and kept running, so it's not among our current holdings.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BKS	18.17	18.26	+0.05%	17.37	N/A	Chart
CZZ	3.91	4.05	+3.6%	3.68	N/A	Chart

Just in case the market does rise, I have three long ideas for tomorrow. The ball is in the bulls' court—for now.

Trade Ideas for 01/13/09

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
CELL (Brightpoint)	5.13	4.83	4.68	Chart
ADBE (Adobe)	24.51	23.59	23.06	Chart
WSM (Williams-Sonoma)	9.08	8.15	7.99	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/12/08

Turns out the market wasn't ready to go just yet. So we hang in there, waiting for whenever it's ready.

I had a book-profits type of stop on VMW Friday, so when we got stopped out we kept a nice chunk of profit (1.11R). If you decided not to use that sell-stop, the more conservative exit is at 23.78.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BKS	18.17	19.02	+4.7%	16.36	N/A	Chart
CZZ	3.91	4.18	+6.9%	3.68	N/A	Chart

Buying on the breakout hasn't always worked that well in the chop of this market, but it kept us from taking on new positions Friday. Even though conditions were ripe for a rally, the market chose to rest instead. You don't know what type of day you're going to get until you get it. Monday's signals, once again, look nice. Real estate, agricultural chemicals, and giving the gold short another chance. Let's see if we get a cooperative market.

Trade Ideas for 01/12/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
CBG (CB Richard Ellis)	5.41	4.75	N/A	Chart
TRA (Terra)	18.86	17.91	16.76	Chart
DZZ (Ultrashort Gold)	27.24	25.36	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/09/08

Judging solely from the price change in the Dow, today was a losing day, suggesting further downside to come. But the consolidation took place in such a narrow range that it seems as though the market is ready for the next leg up. Indeed, the S&P, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all had up days, though minor. Furthermore, our holdings, old and new, all broke out. This kind of divergence, where individual stocks are up a great deal while the averages enjoy a tight consolidation, is a very encouraging divergence, suggesting that the correction is over.

We bought both of yesterday's ideas and are off to a good start in the event of a broader market rally. Note that BKS broke below the sell-stop prior to being elected; thus today's low is the new sell-stop, and your position size should've been adjusted accordingly.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
VMW	24.11	26.93	+11.7%	25.18	N/A	Chart
BKS	18.17	19.33	+6.4%	16.36	N/A	Chart
CZZ	3.91	4.17	+6.6%	3.49	N/A	Chart

One of the most bizarre trends late last year was the rush into US bonds, with yields at zero for some short-term issuances. This doesn't make sense since the dollar itself is equivalent to a short-term bond yielding 0%; so why give yourself the additional opportunity cost of a maturity date? Now the bond bubble is disintegrating; TBT is the security for taking advantage of that. Also, I have a higher-risk signal in UWM. The signal will only work if the bottom of a shallow correction was hit today; otherwise it will get stopped out. But maybe it's finally the right time to be that aggressive.

Trade Ideas for 01/09/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TBT (Ultrashort Bonds)	42.97	41.38	39.44	Chart
UWM (Ultra Russell 2000)	21.11	19.61	N/A	Chart
PXD (Pioneer Natural Resources)	20.46	18.75	N/A	Chart
TS (Tenaris)	24.46	22.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/08/08

Instead of rocketing higher, we got a sharp pullback today. After such a strong advance the past several sessions, it was too much to ask for the market to pull off a bull market-style bull move and reach even higher after taking a small rest. The question is now a matter of when the market will finish correcting. It could happen as soon as tomorrow and as late as the early part of next week.

We lost most of our portfolio, each loss an expensive 1R loss. New signals were nowhere close to breakout levels.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
VMW	24.11	24.83	+3.0%	23.15	Consider selling on a close < 23.78	Chart

In case the bounce is brief and we start climbing again in the afternoon, here are tomorrow's charts.

Trade Ideas for 01/08/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
BKS (Barnes & Noble)	18.17	16.78	N/A	Chart
CZZ (Cosan)	3.91	3.49	3.17	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/07/08

Wow, the market held up much better than I thought it could. Yesterday's lows held, pretty much across the board, and a sizable minority of charts broke out and stayed above their breakout points. I mentioned the possibility that yesterday's correction was all the rest the market needed. Counting today as another day of rest, it's looking more likely that further upside is in store.

The pessimistic after-hours action yesterday didn't carry through to today, and instead we have a very nice chart in TSL. FAF, after struggling positive/negative for a week or two, finally dropped below the sell-stop, and we sold it for a -0.33R loss. We bought a few other stocks though.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
TSL	10.41	10.26	-1.4%	9.25	Consider selling on a close < 9.46	Chart
VMW	24.11	24.58	+1.9%	23.15	Consider selling on a close < 23.63	Chart
QCOM	37.14	37.15	+0.0%	36.04	Consider selling on a close < 36.34	Chart
DDM	34.01	33.64	-1.1%	31.86	Consider selling on a close < 32.79	Chart

I don't like to have too many strongly correlated tickers among the holdings, but these charts look good. If you don't like the idea of doubling down, don't take ENER if you have TSL, nor GE if you have DDM.

Trade Ideas for 01/07/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
EV (Eaton Vance)	22.26	21.34	20.34	Chart
GE (General Electric)	17.26	16.45	N/A	Chart
GRMN (Garmin)	22.06	19.69	N/A	Chart
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices)	30.33	27.64	26.93	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/06/08

After getting a bit overextended last week, we got some consolidation today. There may be further sideways action to come, if not a few days of pullback. It's looking like the upward path will be a slow grind.

We sold LIHR today for a nice 25%, 3.1R gain (using the aggressive entry figures). The gold sector looks like it could correct back down to its 50-day moving average, so we take our profit and watch for a new entry. We bought TSL today; after some initial strength, it closed down and tanked further after-hours. That's not a great sign for the rest of the market since the solar sector tends to reflect bullish appetite.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
FAF	28.07	28.12	+0.2%	27.19	N/A	Chart
TSL	10.41	10.09	-3.1%	9.25	Consider selling on a close < 9.41	Chart

While I expect to see further pullbacks tomorrow, there's the possibility that today's action represented enough of a correction for the rally to continue its upward march. The following charts are set up to pop whenever bullish appetite should return. Again, I would avoid the opening hour of trading.

Trade Ideas for 01/06/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
VMW (VMWare)	24.11	23.15	22.40	Chart
UAUA (United Airlines)	12.21	11.19	10.96	Chart
QCOM (QUALCOMM)	37.14	36.04	35.34	Chart
DDM (Ultra Dow 30 ETF)	34.01	32.79	31.86	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 01/05/08

The market exhibited impressive action during the three days I took off last week. Many breakouts occurred, and the major indices hit multi-week highs. Even better, the 50- and 200-day moving averages on many charts have finally flattened out. So either a rally has begun, or the market is doing a repeat of the Thanksgiving week rally (which, you may recall, flopped big-time the following Monday.) Nevertheless, the medium-term trend is up, so whether or not we get a pullback Monday, it's still time to think bullishly. In fact, a pullback next week might pose a good buying opportunity (risking to the late December lows).

Now that 2009 has begun, I'm looking for a couple plays to unfold. First, the sucker's rally, with a target of Dow 10,000-11,000, followed by a fall to new lows, or at least a test of the November low. As far as timing is concerned, I don't think the rally can last past May. That would mark the final opportunity to sell any long-term holdings you haven't been able to part with. The second play is the gold play. In 2008 we learned that when the big players need to raise cash, very few asset classes are safe (yen and treasuries being a couple of glaring exceptions). Gold fell with the rest of the market, though not as hard. With the rise in deflation expectations, commodities have continued to suffer. But gold is a different type of commodity, since it's not a raw material but rather a monetary metal. Its value ought to increase as more dollars (and other currencies) are printed.

I had a solid 2008, but I expect to do better in 2009. My 2008 performance was hurt more by mediocre risk management than by the inability of most asset classes to trend. Therefore, my main trading-related resolution for 2009 is a renewed dedication to risk management, which means: cutting losses at a pre-determined point, and on each trade putting at risk an amount that balances the profit and loss scenarios.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
LIHR	16.21	21.92	+35.2%	20.37	Consider selling on a close < 21.42, or upon attainment of the 200-day moving average (~23)	Chart
FAF	28.07	28.56	+1.7%	27.19	N/A	Chart

Will momentum from last week continue? It might, at least initially. A pullback really seems imminent, though. All told, we could be in for a wild open Monday, so I'd consider waiting until 10:30 to enter new positions.

Trade Ideas for 01/05/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TSL (Trina Solar)	10.41	9.62	9.25	Chart
CZZ (Cosan)	3.82	3.11	N/A	Chart
DNA (Genentech)	83.29	81.95	81.16	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.