Trade Ideas for 01/22/09

After a bad open, the market started climbing out of the hole it had dug for itself. While it's still a LONG way to the top of the pit, it's possible that the financials put in a double bottom yesterday and will proceed to do a fast rally to the 50-day moving average, bringing the rest of the market with it. The other possibility is the one spelled out by the main trend so far this year: further downside, with today's action being nothing more than a oversold bounce. While I give this scenario the edge, both are valid. We'll see if this rally has legs in the coming sessions.

We had a dramatic reversal of fortune in our current holdings, as loser became winner and vice versa. We also acquired a new holding.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
BEAV	9.07	9.14	+0.7%	8.14	N/A	Chart
SH	79.23	76.69	-3.2%	75.32	N/A	Chart
AER	6.21	6.27	+1.0%	5.29	N/A	Chart

Sticking with the idea that the market could go either way, I'm giving SMN another shot but also highlighting GTI, which, while technically not a component of the index that SMN is short, would not be out of place in that index.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials)	44.33	39.28	37.33	Chart
GTI (Graftech)	8.74	7.81	6.80	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.