Trade Ideas for 12/21/09

Friday the market bounced off Thursday's lows and closed near the highs. Rangebound for so many weeks now, the market is tough to read. Will it drift sideways for another couple weeks to end the year, or will it start trending? With sturdy support just below current prices (the 50-day moving average and the bottom of the range), a breakdown doesn't appear likely in the broad S&P 500. A breakout of the range could last 2-4 weeks and take the markets to new recovery highs. However, on a sector-by-sector basis we had consumer staples (XLP) closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time in many months, joining energy and financials as the laggards of the S&P. If a breakdown does occur, it would likely be led by these sectors. You might have missed it, but the CPST buy stop triggered in the last minutes of trading Friday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	19.91	+18.4%	17.34	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 18.59	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.24	+5.5%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.93	-1.5%	24.58	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.34	+13.9%	20.67	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 21.99	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.05	+6.0%	12.41	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.15	+1.9%	13.79	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.85	+1.0%	3.49	N/A	Chart
SMN	8.96	9.07	+1.2%	8.49	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.32	+1.5%	1.22	N/A	Chart

Long-biased Monday, but open to the possibility of a move down.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
AMZN (Amazon.com)	130.09	125.64	N/A	Chart
VCI (Valassis)	18.84	17.64	N/A	Chart
URE (Ultra Real Estate)	6.71	6.42	N/A	Chart
AKAM (Akamai)	25.72	24.99	N/A	Chart
ZSL (Ultrashort Silver)	4.71	4.49	N/A	Chart
DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas)	13.24	12.83	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/18/09

The market came down pretty hard today, gapping down at the open and closing near the lows. Still, it remains within the interminable trading range of the past weeks/months. At mid-range now, it's anyone's guess what's next. We were stopped out of CMC and bought SKF and SMN.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	19.40	+15.4%	17.34	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 18.59	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.08	+3.7%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.59	+1.0%	24.58	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.19	+13.2%	20.67	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 21.74	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.68	+3.0%	12.41	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.09	+1.4%	13.59	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.83	+0.5%	3.49	N/A	Chart
SMN	8.96	9.09	+1.4%	8.49	N/A	Chart

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TIF (Tiffany)	43.03	42.07	N/A	Chart
CPST (Capstone Turbine)	1.30	1.24	N/A	Chart
RDN (Radian Group)	6.56	6.12	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/17/09

After rising to a weekly high, the market dropped into the FOMC announcement and then dropped some more. After-hours the dollar broke to a 3-month high. It bottomed with the Dubai crisis around Thanksgiving and has been rising since.

At the time of the Dubai crisis, the equities market redefined its tight coupling vis-a-vis the dollar such that drops in the dollar correlated to rises in the stock market to a greater degree than rises in the dollar correlated to drops in the stock market. Today's FOMC announcement is meaningful because it compels participants to revisit this correlation. Will the Dubai redefinition stick, or will we see equities stumble?

We bought DEI today, and got stopped out of NFLX.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.32	+9.0%	17.34	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.30	+6.2%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.86	-1.8%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.15	+13.0%	20.67	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.92	+5.0%	12.41	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.14	+1.8%	13.59	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.85	+1.0%	3.49	N/A	Chart
CMC	17.32	17.18	-0.8%	16.82	N/A	Chart

For tomorrow, more shorts than longs, but SKF is not a re-up. Curiously, the buy entry point is the same one as before.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
RDN (Radian Group)	6.61	6.19	N/A	Chart
LVS (Las Vegas Sands)	16.33	15.65	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	25.31	24.58	N/A	Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials)	8.96	8.49	N/A	Chart
EEV (Ultrashort Emerging Markets)	11.34	10.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/16/09

More rangebound antics going into Wednesday's FOMC announcement (2:15pm ET). We bought all of yesterday's ideas.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.16	+8.0%	17.34	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.36	+6.8%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.13	-0.5%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	21.61	+10.2%	20.67	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.63	+2.6%	12.03	N/A	Chart
NFLX	57.16	56.92	-0.4%	55.49	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.64	-4.5%	3.49	N/A	Chart
CMC	17.32	17.32	0	16.82	N/A	Chart

FOMC announcement days are volatile, particularly post-announcement. If holdings (including new holdings) are doing well going into the announcement, consider taking some off.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
NG (Novagold)	5.61	5.34	N/A	Chart
DEI (Douglas Emmett)	13.89	13.59	N/A	Chart
ABAT (Advanced Battery)	3.98	3.85	3.79	Chart
LVS (Las Vegas Sands)	16.33	15.68	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/15/09

The market's pushing up against the range highs now. An upside breakout could be explosive, given the length of the consolidation. But with a Fed announcement looming on Wednesday, the market might just tread water for a couple of days. We bought VVUS and CBG and sold CAEI today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	17.88	+6.4%	16.49	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	8.85	+1.0%	8.41	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.49	-3.2%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	21.28	+8.5%	20.67	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.69	+3.1%	12.03	N/A	Chart

Should the market break out tomorrow, we have holdings that will benefit. No need to add more, but if you want to, here are some that look good.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
NFLX (Netflix)	57.16	55.49	N/A	Chart
SBGI (Sinclair Broadcasting Group)	3.81	3.49	N/A	Chart
CMC (Commercial Metals)	17.32	16.82	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/14/09

Friday gave us another narrow range day and higher prices across the indices. The market's tendency to move upward the past few weeks has not resulted in much price gain, but it does give off a sense of doggedness. Despite some financial shocks and a strengthening dollar, the market remains within its trading range.

Next week we have options expiration but also on Wednesday the FOMC announcement. Not a light week, and a good chance we'll get a break of this trading range as a consequence. Given the market's elevated price levels in the face of troubling news, an upward break seems likelier. We were stopped out of MZZ and SRS Friday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.25	+8.6%	16.71	N/A	Chart
CAEI	1.11	1.30	+17.1%	1.20	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.85	-1.8%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	20.10	+2.5%	18.64	N/A	Chart

Charts look ripe for some of the riskier issues to jump next week.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
GSS (Golden Star Resources)	3.66	3.44	N/A	Chart
VVUS (Vivus)	8.76	8.41	N/A	Chart
BKD (Brookdale Senior Living)	17.61	17.04	N/A	Chart
CBG (CB Richard Ellis)	12.31	12.03	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/11/09

After gapping up at the open, the market fell asleep and stayed within a narrow range. The coiling continues, and so does the ambiguity with respect to the eventual resolution of this congestion zone. We were stopped out of ARIA, QID and DXD, and bought CAEI, FST and SRS. Optionally, we booked partial profits in AONE.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.93	+12.6%	16.71	N/A	Chart
CAEI	1.11	1.33	+19.8%	1.11	Consider booking profits around current price and at 1.50 (50- and 200-dma respectively)	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.25	-0.2%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	19.85	+1.2%	18.64	N/A	Chart
MZZ	24.47	23.84	-2.6%	23.49	N/A	Chart
SRS	8.39	8.34	-0.6%	8.14	N/A	Chart

Oddly for a narrow range day, not many inspiring charts for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
HOGS (Zhongpin)	14.76	14.26	N/A	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	28.31	27.23	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.