Trade Idea for 03/13/09

Huge up day; an early test proved too easy for the bulls, and they ran away with it. But I'm wary; here are some reasons. The long-term trend is down. Today's volume was unimpressive. Buyers have expended a great deal of energy in the past 4 days. The market wants as many people as possible to forget that the long-term trend is down, in order to sucker more money from them. By my count, we're in counter-trend Wave 4, and it has already risen the minimum number of points to be considered a complete Wave 4 (having retraced over 38.2% of that long Wave 3 down). And don't dismiss the fact that tomorrow is Friday the 13th, the Ides of March.

We bought both of yesterday's ideas. My stops on PM and BMC were too aggressive, and we lost them early on. For me, I'm happy with the profits I made on this leg up, and I plan to close out most of my long equity positions by the end of trading tomorrow. I guess fearful since the market feels greedy.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SWKS	6.61	7.71	+16.6%	7.49	N/A	Chart
AXP	12.21	13.15	+7.7%	11.08	N/A	Chart
ITU	9.66	10.36	+7.2%	9.84	Consider booking some profit around market open (crossed 50-day moving average today)	Chart
DXO	2.51	2.49	-0.8%	2.15	N/A	Chart
UYG	1.65	2.35	+42.4%	1.89	N/A	Chart
JBHT	19.71	21.19	+7.5%	19.84	N/A	Chart
BHI	29.67	29.82	+0.5%	28.07	N/A	Chart

For tomorrow, something completely different...

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FXY (CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust)	102.71	100.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.