Trade Ideas for 03/17/09

Today the uptrend attained that higher high I mentioned in my last post, and it looks to me like this is it for the upleg. Now we see if the correction takes us to new lows or not. Based on the idea that this last corrective move mirrors the final stages of Intermediate A, the correction shall take us to new lows, but in a meandering fashion. Well, before we get there, today's high has to remain undisputed as a top by continued downside tomorrow, or at least no further highs.

We bought everything in yesterday's list, but following my note on TYP, sold it for a small profit at the end of the session. Also sold, for a nice profit, was SWKS. As for the rest of our longs, anything is possible—although further lows look most likely, the market could reverse and go to new highs. So it's up to you whether to sell some (or all) holdings pre-emptively, or to hold until sell-stops are violated. One rule to consider is selling your (similarly-correlated) holdings once 20-30% of them get stopped out, as a profit preservation measure. The only one of the following that I'm still personally holding is DXO. (But, I'm also short GDX, which is a similar stance to long DZZ.)

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
DZZ	22.61	22.28	-1.5%	21.78	N/A	Chart
AXP	12.21	12.66	+3.7%	12.59	N/A	Chart
ITU	9.66	10.49	+8.6%	10.12	N/A.	Chart
DXO	2.51	2.49	-0.8%	2.15	N/A	Chart
UYG	1.65	2.28	+38.2%	2.18	N/A	Chart
JBHT	19.71	22.41	+13.7%	21.32	N/A	Chart
BHI	29.67	30.11	+1.5%	28.07	N/A	Chart
AVA	13.47	13.25	-1.6%	12.89	N/A	Chart

Time to look for short-side opportunities. OK to risk more than usual, as the long-term trend is down.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
MZZ (Ultrashort Midcaps)	72.56	67.90	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	149.73	125.26	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.