Trade Ideas for 09/18/09

We had a long white candle yesterday followed by today's doji, which featured an upper shadow that extended above the prior candle. I interpret this as a sign of reversal, as the market rejects higher prices and closes in the red. One strategy to take advantage of this setup is to enter a short position upon breaking the prior day's low. However, that didn't work so well last week, as we got whipsawed with QID and SRS.



It has been a successful entry strategy in the past, however, leading to downside participation in December and February, and not triggering in January.



So I'll be more conservative this time and look to enter upon breaking Wednesday's low. Of course, you can require less margin of safety and enter upon breaking today's low, or do a 50-50 combination with tomorrow's entries.

We sold HTZ for a good-sized profit and CAEI for a loss today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
V	70.44	73.82	+4.8%	73.29	N/A	Chart
SLB	58.43	61.79	+5.8%	60.99	N/A	Chart
WFR	17.58	18.32	+4.2%	17.58	N/A	Chart

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FXP (Ultrashort Xinhua 25)	8.96	8.43	N/A	Chart
DXD (Ultrashort Dow 30)	35.46	34.14	N/A	Chart
SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate)	9.72	8.96	8.45	Chart
DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas)	14.31	13.59	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.