Trade Ideas for 07/31/09

Not long after my intraday post, there was indeed a final push to new highs at S&P 997, followed by what looked like consolidation. But maybe people started getting nervous approaching the big round number of 1,000, because the last half hour featured a rather swift drop. Today may have marked the blow-off top; we'll see tomorrow or next week whether the bulls can push it to even higher highs and extend the blow-off. However, a break below the 970 level would mark the end of the rally from July 8th (although not necessarily the larger rally from March 6). We bought TQNT, COF, and CWTR today, and sold AHL.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	7.11	6.82	-4.1%	6.65	N/A	Chart
COF	30.81	30.41	-1.3%	29.20	N/A	Chart
CWTR	6.87	7.17	+4.4%	6.49	N/A	Chart

Setups in the short ETFs look cleaner than the ones for long entries, so that's where most of tomorrow's ideas are.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas)	17.78	16.65	N/A	Chart
GLL (Ultrashort Gold)	15.27	14.85	N/A	Chart
FXP (Ultrashort Xinhua China 25)	10.36	9.48	N/A	Chart
KBH (KB Home)	17.06	16.15	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Dangerous levels

Blow-off top may have just occurred—any new positions taken today, look to exit some or all on the next push above the highs (currently at 995.35 for S&P)

Trade Ideas for 07/30/09

A very similar script for the third or fourth session in a row—initial downward trend and ultimately a reversal. Price has stayed in a narrow range, and could break either way when it's time. My observation is that this market doesn't want to go down yet, which lends more credibility to the blow-off top scenario. In other news, China's market took a 5% dive and took MPEL down with it. We also lost DNN. After giving us a few weeks of easy trades, the market's suddenly gotten tough.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.78	+10.0%	25.62	N/A	Chart

Still looking to play some quick longs, without risking much. TZA, once again, shouldn't be held overnight if elected.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TQNT (TriQuint Semiconductor)	7.11	6.65	N/A	Chart
KBH (KB Home)	17.06	16.20	N/A	Chart
COF (Capital One)	30.81	29.20	N/A	Chart
CWTR (Coldwater Creek)	6.87	6.49	N/A	Chart
TZA (Small Cap Bear 3x)	17.76	16.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/29/09

The market wobbled today but hasn't yet lost its footing. In fact, the back-and-forth of the past few sessions could be setting up a base from which a rally might spring. Out of congestion zones come big moves (in either direction), but the question is when [Edit: also which way!].

We lost a few positions today in the chop: MTL for a profit, SLV and RIMM for losses. It may turn out to be a good thing if the next direction is down. But just in case it's up, there's a new batch of long ideas for tomorrow.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	26.15	+11.6%	25.49	N/A	Chart
DNN	1.81	1.72	-5.0%	1.64	N/A	Chart
MPEL	5.43	5.60	+3.1%	5.15	N/A	Chart

Along with the greater-than-normal number of longs is a short, TZA. If elected, don't hold overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
COF (Capital One)	30.81	29.31	N/A	Chart
ATHR (Atheros Communication)	24.96	23.49	N/A	Chart
CWTR (Coldwater Creek)	6.87	6.45	N/A	Chart
EXM (Excel Maritime)	9.51	8.74	N/A	Chart
CBAK (China BAK Battery)	3.48	3.19	N/A	Chart
TZA (Small Cap Bear 3x)	18.17	16.87	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/28/09

The market ground higher today, but never got near its overnight high—those of you who have access to futures charts may have noticed that overnight the S&P futures hit 984, implying a price of about 987-8 in the cash index (S&P proper). This still has the potential to go parabolic, but it needs to stop grinding and start soaring soon. Let the market prove it can pull off such a feat by clearing today's high tomorrow, or at least staying above today's lows.

We bought all of yesterday's ideas, except for CPSL, which gapped up above our buy price. We sold FAS at the end of the day for a profit of about a dollar per share. Coincidentally, that was about the amount of profit we got on today's sale of TSL, too.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	26.06	+11.2%	25.45	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	11.33	+23.3%	10.29	N/A	Chart
SLV	13.56	13.84	+2.1%	13.49	N/A	Chart
DNN	1.81	1.81	0	1.64	N/A	Chart
MPEL	5.43	5.53	+1.8%	5.15	N/A	Chart
RIMM	77.81	77.54	-0.3%	75.75	N/A	Chart

Let's see if the market can do it. If it can't, be prepared to get stopped out of all your positions. On the short side, TZA would work on a market collapse, but be sure to sell it by the close in any case. This is another one that we're not holding overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
PCU (Southern Copper)	26.01	25.19	N/A	Chart
IBM	118.16	116.49	N/A	Chart
AIR (AAR Corp.)	19.23	18.44	N/A	Chart
FCL (Foundation Coal)	36.47	33.93	N/A	Chart
TZA (Small Cap Bear 3x)	18.17	16.92	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/27/09

The market broke above the Thursday highs, and by my count it appears to be in the final stages of the rally from July 8th. But "final stages" means the 5th wave of the 5th wave, and oftentimes this results in a blow-off top. So the potential for quick, big gains exists this week, but by the same token it's likely that the rally ends as well. Let's see what the market gives us.

We sold CFSG for a rather large profit, especially given the short holding period.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.85	+10.3%	25.45	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	10.25	+11.5%	9.37	N/A	Chart
SLV	13.56	13.66	+0.7%	13.20	N/A	Chart
TSL	29.51	31.10	+5.4%	30.49	N/A	Chart

We're going to play it a bit fast and loose. Tomorrow's ideas have a history of running big and falling big. You don't need to risk a lot on them, but let's see if we can capitalize on a potential blow-off 5th of 5th. If FAS is elected and you don't get stopped out by the close, sell it. We are not holding that one overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FAS (Financial Bull 3x)	52.51	49.49	N/A	Chart
DNN (Denison Mines)	1.81	1.64		Chart
MPEL (Melco PBL)	5.43	5.15	N/A	Chart
CPSL (China Precision Steel)	2.76	2.59	N/A	Chart
RIMM (Research in Motion)	77.81	75.23	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Idea for 07/24/09

After moving over the prior highs early in the session, the market really took off. There was a reason I made that very observation yesterday, and it had to do with the choppiness of the sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday. The charts suggested to me that Wave 4 had completed, and perhaps Wave 5 had as well. This was the picture as of yesterday's close:

The question mark marked the spot. Either all of Wave 5 was done, or just 1 of 5. Sure enough, it was the latter, and today we rode Wave 3 of 5 up, up and away. Only now we're facing a similar set of circumstances as yesterday's close. Wave 3 of 5 certainly looks like it's done, but it's also possible we got a truncated 5th and the entire up move is now done. Like yesterday, it depends on whether we can get above today's high. Even if we can, the juiciest part of the rally looks to be over (but this market could surprise with a blow-off 5th of 5th as well).

We bought SLV and TSL today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	14.88	+20.4%	14.49	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.93	+10.7%	24.96	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	10.22	+11.2%	9.37	N/A	Chart
SLV	13.56	13.52	-0.3%	13.20	N/A	Chart
TSL	29.51	30.21	+2.4%	27.83	N/A	Chart

Not a lot for tomorrow, and if you bought SLV today you might want to hold off.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
PAAS (Pan American Silver)	20.31	18.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/23/09

The market churned higher after yesterday's mini-pullback, but fell back at the close. Now we've had a couple of choppy sessions after a near-vertical rise. If the market can get above today's high, it's set up for another strong move up; failing that, a quick move down.

We bought CKR, but the market stopped us out not long afterward.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	14.75	+19.3%	14.20	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.80	+10.1%	24.96	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	9.05	-1.5%	8.72	N/A	Chart

Pushing the same mix of possibilities for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SLV (Silver ETF)	13.56	13.20	N/A	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	40.51	38.21	N/A	Chart
TSL (Trina Solar)	29.51	27.83	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/22/09

We finally got a pullback today, only to see it reversed completely in after-hours trading. Well, the big news is that the market broke above the June high, albeit marginally. And perhaps that was an occasion for some people to take profits, because the day's pullback began soon afterward. I'm not sure what the market has next up its sleeve. It may want to go up a little bit more before it corrects more significantly. Or perhaps today's intraday weakness was a signal that the pullback is just around the corner.

As for our holdings, a nasty open in ANAD really hurt us. And then after we sold near the lows, ANAD went on to close near the high of the day. Well, playing any position now is certainly risky.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	14.19	+14.8%	13.84	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	25.09	+7.1%	24.49	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	9.40	+2.3%	8.72	N/A	Chart

A variety of possibilities for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DGP (Gold Double Long ETN)	20.84	20.33	N/A	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	40.51	38.42	N/A	Chart
CKR (CKE Restaurants)	9.48	9.18	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/21/09

Looking at today's chart, I'm reminded of the old Wall Street expression, "No tree grows to the sky." This one's trying, so let's ride with it, but be on guard. We bought ANAD today and sold AEIS for a nice profit.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	13.97	+13.0%	12.99	N/A	Chart
ANAD	4.18	4.08	-2.3%	3.99	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.96	+6.5%	24.49	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	9.54	+3.8%	8.33	N/A	Chart

One long, one short for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	40.51	38.92	N/A	Chart
GRMN (Garmin)	25.01	24.31	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/20/09

The Dow and NASDAQ continued their winning streaks, both closing in the green and making higher daily highs. The S&P, however, closed in the red and failed to make a higher high. So mixed messages among the major averages. We don't necessarily need to see a pullback materialize at this point in order to push higher. But it would be unusual not to see one after such a strong week and with July options expiration having just passed. Perhaps a pullback to the 50-day moving average, and then resumption of the fight between the bears and the bulls?

We bought MTL Friday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	13.54	+9.5%	12.99	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	11.39	+11.6%	11.12	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.70	+5.4%	24.44	N/A	Chart
MTL	9.19	9.50	+3.4%	8.33	N/A	Chart

With markets this extended, risk does appear to be to the downside. But prices may not fall that far even if the next direction is down. Well, you never know. So let's throw the inverse financials ETF into the mix. Gold always has its own agenda, so let's give DGP a shot. And then a long idea in ANAD in case the markets just take off from here.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
ANAD (ANADIGICS)	4.18	3.99	N/A	Chart
DGP (Gold Double Long ETN)	20.28	19.98	19.86	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	40.22	38.69	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/17/09

Still no pullback, and it would be natural to see one after four up days in a row. Even the big rally off the March lows, which this advance resembles, experienced a slight down day on the 5th day of the advance:

But there's no denying the strength of this rally, and the comparison to the rally off the March lows may be apt if this turns out to be the beginning of another 3-month, 300-point move (and note that since the low at 869, 75 points have already been traversed). But one step at a time; let's first make sure that this market is able to hold onto its gains next week.

We were stopped out of TQNT by a single penny today, and within the first 10 minutes of trading. Very frustrating, but it's the price you pay to stay solvent. If you didn't get stopped out, the new sell-stop is 5.74.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
CFSG	12.36	13.44	+8.7%	12.99	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	11.51	+12.7%	10.66	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.87	+6.1%	24.44	N/A	Chart

As extended as the market feels, some charts now have good-looking entry points.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
MTL (Mechel Steel)	9.19	8.33	N/A	Chart
ABAT (Advanced Battery)	3.93	3.82	3.74	Chart
UYG (Ultra Financials)	4.16	3.94	3.68	Chart
DGP (Gold Double Long ETN)	20.28	19.86	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Update 07/16/09

Ever since the low last Wednesday at S&P 869, I've been highlighting while pooh-poohing the possibility of a rally unfolding, even as we accumulated long positions. I guess I should have done less pooh-poohing now that we're over 60 points higher! The pace of the rise has been blazingly fast, and we are extended to the point that no charts look right for new entries. That said, the downtrend from June 11th may well be over, and if it is, it would have lasted about a month (June 11 - July 8) against an uptrend of about 3 months (Mar 6 - June 11), which feels about right. The alternative view is that a symmetrical head-and-shoulders top is forming, in which case the market shouldn't get much higher than today's high for at least the next two weeks (and indeed could move below 800). Two very opposed possibilities, and we're at a crossroads right now, so let's get a sense of how the next pullback plays out before taking on new positions.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	5.29	5.94	+12.3%	5.75	N/A	Chart
CFSG	12.36	13.20	+6.8%	12.49	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	11.26	+10.3%	10.62	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.68	+5.3%	23.88	N/A	Chart

Trade Idea for 07/15/09

Bulls continued lifting the market higher today. While the pace of the rise wasn't as torrid compared to yesterday, after hours the market spiked up, pointing to a potential large gap up at tomorrow's open. A pullback is due at some point, and from subsequent action we'll be able to determine whether this is the start of a run to new highs or just typical bear market shenanigans.

We sold ZSL for a small loss today and picked up CFSG.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	5.29	5.66	+7.0%	4.99	N/A	Chart
CFSG	12.36	12.59	+1.9%	11.84	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	10.85	+6.3%	10.30	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.07	+2.7%	23.49	N/A	Chart

The market does feel extended here. I don't feel comfortable taking on new longs until a pullback occurs. If the market continues up, our portfolio of long positions should benefit. In case of a reversal, my idea for tomorrow is on the short side.

New Trade Idea

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SCO (Ultrashort Crude Oil)	23.76	21.78	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/14/09

The bulls found solid footing at the 200-day moving average and laid waste to the shorts today, closing up 22 points on the S&P near the high of the day (around 900). From the lower high on July 1 at 932 to last Wednesday's low of 869, today's thrust represents a 50% retracement. 50% is a normal amount for a correction within a larger trend (in this case, a downtrend), so this doesn't tell us whether the downtrend is over or just taking a breather. We'll know more as this rally unfolds, and while odds are to the long- and medium-term trends (down), bounces off the 200-day can end up being substantial.

We sold most of our short positions for losses today, and bought TQNT.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	5.29	5.53	+4.5%	4.99	N/A	Chart
ZSL	10.17	10.31	+1.4%	10.13	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	10.34	+1.3%	9.81	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.30	+3.7%	23.49	N/A	Chart

Possibilities for both the bull and bear cases tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials)	22.51	20.36	N/A	Chart
CFSG (China Fire and Security)	12.36	11.84	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/13/09

Not much happened Friday as the S&P printed another doji on the daily chart, making it three dojis in a row. The key fact for me was that the market didn't break Wednesday's low. The resulting formation, three small-range days in the vicinity of the 200-day moving average, is a credible base from which a rally could occur, provided that we stay above Wednesday's lows, and preferably Friday's, too. Well, perhaps "rally" is too strong a word; the market may just end up postponing further downside for a few sessions.

We bought SRS and SZK Friday. SZK broke the initial sell-stop before triggering, so the new sell-stop is the low of the day.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SKF	46.27	47.49	+2.6%	45.44	N/A	Chart
ZSL	10.17	10.65	+4.7%	10.13	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	10.25	+0.4%	9.79	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	23.57	+0.6%	23.13	N/A	Chart
SRS	23.17	22.75	-1.8%	21.38	N/A	Chart
SZK	65.33	65.05	-0.4%	64.14	N/A	Chart

I'm going to go with some longs Monday (mostly). While the market may be able to bounce at its 200-day moving average, some of the stronger charts could correspondingly bounce at their 50-day averages. I wouldn't risk too much on the long ideas though, as the market remains in a medium-term downtrend.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DXD (Ultrashort Dow 30)	52.24	50.99	50.39	Chart
EJ (E-House)	15.81	14.99	N/A	Chart
TQNT (TriQuint Semi)	5.29	4.99	N/A	Chart
TC (Thompson Creek Minerals)	10.24	9.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/10/09

After yesterday's bounce, the bulls had a golden opportunity to really push the market higher. Instead, we had a very boring session with the market marginally higher. The daily chart of the S&P sports the beginnings of a bear flag. And what I find most damning is the chart of the NASDAQ Bullish Percent Index, symbol BPCOMPQ. BPCOMPQ measures the percentage of NASDAQ stocks that are in uptrends (as defined by having bullish targets vis-a-vis point-and-figure analysis). This chart is looking just about ready to come undone, falling below 60%, below its 10- and 20-day moving averages, in a near-vertical fashion. BPCOMPQ is an indicator The Real Time Trader uses to gauge bullish sentiment, as the NASDAQ serves as a fair proxy for risk appetite, housing as it does a riskier set of stocks than its fellow major averages. At any rate, by several counts it appears the air has been let out of the market.

We bought our two longs from yesterday anyway, so let's see if the bulls can build on today's minuscule gains.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SKF	46.27	46.41	+0.3%	44.39	N/A	Chart
ZSL	10.17	10.35	+1.8%	9.74	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	10.14	+0.7%	9.79	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	23.63	+0.9%	23.13	N/A	Chart

The market could go either way tomorrow, but in the medium-term (2-4 weeks), most indications suggest further downward movement. So let's go with the medium-term trend for tomorrow's ideas. A warning that SZK is VERY low-volume.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate)	23.17	21.38	N/A	Chart
SZK (Ultrashort Consumer Goods)	65.33	64.33	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/09/09

Has the waterfall decline begun? The S&P only closed slightly in the red. However, this was after falling below 870, a level not seen since April. And the fact remains that this was a negative close on higher volume, an ominous combination. Four days of lower lows, and the S&P barely holding in the vicinity of its the 200-day moving average; even if a rally should materialize here, the bulls face a lot of headwinds.

We sold NVAX for breakeven, and bought SKF. ZSL missed the buy price by a couple of pennies; I'm including it in the list of holdings because an order of buy ZSL limit 10.17 stop 10.14 is reasonable and would have been filled.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SKF	46.27	47.50	+2.7%	44.39	N/A	Chart
ZSL	10.17	10.30	+1.3%	9.74	N/A	Chart

The short ETFs are again extended; let's not chase. Meanwhile, a couple of longs have potential setups, but play these small as the primary trend has shifted to the downside.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
AEIS (Advanced Energy Industries)	10.21	9.79	N/A	Chart
AHL (Aspen Insurance)	23.43	22.75	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/08/09

After yesterday's little rally, it seemed like the market dodged a bullet. Up until now, the script had been written such that rallies, whenever and wherever they begin, have some staying power. But the bears put paid to that script today, as the market closed at the lows, at a price not seen since May. With last week's lower high and a lower low in the forming, we now have the kind of setup that happens when markets start dropping waterfall-style. The market has been rolling over for almost a month now, and it could pick up speed at any time. The saving grace is that the close on the S&P was at the 200-day moving average, where a bounce may occur.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Add'l Exit Guideline	Chart
NVAX	2.62	2.63	+0.4%	2.62	N/A	Chart

A couple short ideas for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
ZSL (Ultrashort Silver)	10.14	9.74	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	46.27	44.39	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/07/09

The bulls were able to contain the damage today, bouncing off the 200-day moving average in the S&P. However, no good setups appear in the inverse ETFs since today was not an inside day. If this little rally can continue for 1-2 more days, we'll start to see those setups.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Add'l Exit Guideline	Chart
NVAX	2.62	2.79	+6.5%	2.62	N/A	Chart

Some longs that look possible; play small.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
STEC	26.01	23.49	N/A	Chart
ALD (Allied Capital)	3.69	3.29	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/06/09

After six sessions in which the S&P managed a higher high than the day prior (while not really managing to get far), the rally appears to have run out of steam in a hurry. The way this looks, the market has the potential to fall apart in a big way. For one thing, it didn't let us on: our two short ideas gapped over their buy prices and never looked back. The bulls need to hold it together Monday morning, otherwise it could be a rout.

We sold LWSN for a loss Thursday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Add'l Exit Guideline	Chart
NVAX	2.62	2.88	+9.9%	2.62	N/A	Chart

No short ideas for Monday, because the market is too extended to the downside. You could try buying the short ETFs if they pull back, risking to Wednesday's low. For example, DUG from 19-20, risking to 17.94.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals)	4.11	3.74	3.64	Chart
IPSU (Imperial Sugar)	13.13	12.31	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 07/02/09

The bulls again managed to break the prior day's high in the S&P, making it 6 days in a row, but just by a hair and with no follow-through. Can they make it 7 in a row? Tomorrow's the last trading day of the week, as markets break for July 4th. I don't see it being a high-volume day. We bought LWSN today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Add'l Exit Guideline	Chart
NVAX	2.62	2.88	+9.9%	2.62	N/A	Chart
LWSN	5.64	5.75	+2.0%	5.54	N/A	Chart

A couple long, a couple short for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
PJC (Piper Jaffray)	45.01	43.49	N/A	Chart
ABAT (Advanced Battery)	4.11	3.84	N/A	Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials)	19.22	17.91	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	42.78	40.91	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.