Trade Ideas for 07/09/09

Has the waterfall decline begun? The S&P only closed slightly in the red. However, this was after falling below 870, a level not seen since April. And the fact remains that this was a negative close on higher volume, an ominous combination. Four days of lower lows, and the S&P barely holding in the vicinity of its the 200-day moving average; even if a rally should materialize here, the bulls face a lot of headwinds.

We sold NVAX for breakeven, and bought SKF. ZSL missed the buy price by a couple of pennies; I'm including it in the list of holdings because an order of buy ZSL limit 10.17 stop 10.14 is reasonable and would have been filled.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SKF	46.27	47.50	+2.7%	44.39	N/A	Chart
ZSL	10.17	10.30	+1.3%	9.74	N/A	Chart

The short ETFs are again extended; let's not chase. Meanwhile, a couple of longs have potential setups, but play these small as the primary trend has shifted to the downside.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
AEIS (Advanced Energy Industries)	10.21	9.79	N/A	Chart
AHL (Aspen Insurance)	23.43	22.75	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.