Trade Ideas for 12/31/09

If yesterday's analogue holds true, the market pulled back into short-term support and will commence its final upward movement tomorrow or next week. I'm not inclined to give the market much room to pull farther back; we can always jump back on if it does indeed go up next week. So stops are on the tight side. We were stopped out of FMC and GOLD for losses today and FST for a gain. We bought ASH and also our hedge, TWM.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	22.84	+35.9%	21.74	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.31	+6.3%	8.99	N/A	Chart
TWM	24.78	24.57	-0.8%	24.33	N/A	Chart
ASH	39.92	40.12	+0.5%	39.36	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	14.04	+14.1%	13.61	N/A	Chart
IVAN	2.74	2.86	+4.4%	2.74	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	4.27	+12.1%	4.17	N/A	Chart
DDR	9.34	9.38	+0.4%	9.15	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.26	-3.1%	1.22	N/A	Chart
VMW	43.01	42.90	-0.3%	42.47	N/A	Chart
SOLF	7.71	7.75	+0.5%	7.49	N/A	Chart

Tomorrow's ideas are based on the idea of the market finding support today.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
GTI (GrafTech)	16.01	15.49	N/A	Chart
LWSN (Lawson)	6.86	6.69	N/A	Chart
RDN (Radian)	7.77	7.16	N/A	Chart
GNK (Genko Shipping)	22.74	21.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/30/09

The market was mildly down after a week of up days. Probably just taking a breather before resuming the upward trek, but please don't take that as a guarantee. A wide-ranging down day could happen at any point to change the dynamic. The chart of the gold ETF GLD is the analogue I'm using:


If this is a valid comparison, we're in the circled blue area, and after the pullback finishes we could see a 5th wave up to the peak. Time frame of ~1 week if simple, 2-3 weeks if extended. We sold DEI and URE for profits and bought IVAN.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	22.46	+33.6%	20.99	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.28	+5.9%	8.99	N/A	Chart
FMC	57.01	56.60	-0.7%	56.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	23.48	+19.7%	23.16	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.80	+12.1%	13.47	N/A	Chart
IVAN	2.74	3.03	+10.6%	2.74	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	4.41	+15.7%	4.18	N/A	Chart
DDR	9.34	9.32	-0.2%	9.15	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.29	-0.8%	1.22	N/A	Chart
GOLD	80.64	80.44	-0.2%	79.27	N/A	Chart
VMW	43.01	42.86	-0.3%	42.10	N/A	Chart
SOLF	7.71	7.84	+1.7%	7.49	N/A	Chart

Among tomorrow's ideas is a short, just in case the scenario doesn't unfold like the GLD analogue.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
NM (Navios Maritime)	6.28	6.05	N/A	Chart
ASH (Ashland)	39.92	39.36	N/A	Chart
GRS (Gammon Gold)	11.29	10.88	N/A	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	24.78	24.33	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/29/09

The market continues on up, but today's doji close in the S&P 500 and red close in the Russell 2000 and financial sector, are less than impressive. We sold VCI for a loss today and bought DDR and SOLF.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	20.87	+24.2%	19.19	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.67	+10.4%	8.99	N/A	Chart
FMC	57.01	56.59	-0.7%	56.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	23.49	+19.8%	22.65	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.71	+11.4%	13.47	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.84	+6.8%	14.72	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	4.17	+9.4%	3.92	N/A	Chart
DDR	9.34	9.29	+0.5%	9.09	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.27	-2.3%	1.22	N/A	Chart
URE	6.71	7.34	+9.4%	7.15	N/A	Chart
GOLD	80.64	81.28	+0.8%	79.27	N/A	Chart
VMW	43.01	42.90	-0.3%	42.10	N/A	Chart
SOLF	7.71	7.94	+3.0%	7.49	N/A	Chart

Commodity-related sectors may be a good bet for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
NM (Navios Maritime)	6.28	6.06	N/A	Chart
JAG (Jaguar Mining)	11.69	11.27	N/A	Chart
IVAN (Ivanhoe Energy)	2.74	2.67	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/28/09

Narrow range on Christmas Eve, but the range sat above that of the prior day's. The market looks ready to lift off for another 1-2 week run, maybe to include some wide-ranging up days. The end of the year holidays tend to paint tricky chart patterns, so if the strength continues we'll want to book profits on the 31st. We bought FMC and were stopped out of ZSL and BVF for losses. In addition, we took partial profits on existing positions.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	21.07	+25.3%	19.19	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.93	+13.4%	8.99	N/A	Chart
FMC	57.01	56.93	-0.1%	56.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	23.52	+19.9%	22.65	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.90	+12.9%	13.47	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.85	+6.9%	14.72	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	4.16	+9.2%	3.92	N/A	Chart
VCI	18.84	18.89	+0.3%	18.26	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.25	-3.8%	1.22	N/A	Chart
URE	6.71	7.28	+8.5%	7.15	N/A	Chart
GOLD	80.64	81.48	+1.0%	79.27	N/A	Chart
VMW	43.01	43.77	+1.8%	42.10	N/A	Chart

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DDR (Developers Diversified Re)	9.34	9.09	N/A	Chart
ASH (Ashland)	40.26	39.19	N/A	Chart
IVAN (Ivanhoe Energy)	2.74	2.66	N/A	Chart
SOLF (Solarfun)	7.71	7.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/24/09

The market gently rolled to new highs today. While the S&P didn't look that impressive, among individual charts, I saw a lot of crazy breakouts. Here's a random sample. The same thing happened last year at this time (in the middle of the worst stock market crash), with stocks peaking on the third trading day of the new year. The pattern then was a consolidation the week of Christmas followed by a furious rally the week of New Year's. Something similar could be happening this year, too, but we must be open to the possibility that the rally portion started this week. To hedge for that possibility, please book 25-50% of existing long holdings tomorrow. Sell 25% from the stronger holdings and 50% from the weaker. We bought all of yesterday's ideas and sold SMN for a loss. Keep in mind that tomorrow is a half day.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	19.33	+15.0%	17.34	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	10.02	+14.4%	8.99	N/A	Chart
ZSL	4.71	4.67	-0.8%	4.49	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	23.50	+19.8%	22.65	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.81	+12.2%	13.47	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.72	+6.0%	14.58	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	4.14	+8.7%	3.68	N/A	Chart
VCI	18.84	19.01	+0.9%	18.26	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.26	-3.1%	1.22	N/A	Chart
URE	6.71	7.12	+6.1%	6.71	N/A	Chart
GOLD	80.64	82.14	+1.9%	79.27	N/A	Chart
BVF	14.11	13.95	-1.1%	13.89	N/A	Chart
VMW	43.01	43.18	+0.4%	42.10	N/A	Chart

Not that we don't already have a lot of positions, but a few charts look good. We're in a sweet spot in the rally right now, but at some point the market will pull back, probably sharply, and stop us out of all our positions. So be wary of taking on too many.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FMC	57.01	56.19	N/A	Chart
AAV (Advantage Oil & Gas)	6.81	6.57	N/A	Chart
MET (MetLife)	35.91	35.18	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/23/09

Not much action today, although the S&P made a new recovery high—by a point or so. While support seems strong, price has not been able to make it to the 1121 level, which marks the 50% intraday retracement of the '07-'09 crash. Steady selling at that price level. Whichever side ends up caving first, the market promises to make quite a move.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	19.60	+16.6%	17.34	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	10.03	+14.5%	8.99	N/A	Chart
ZSL	4.71	4.75	+0.8%	4.49	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.74	+16.0%	20.67	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 22.49	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.51	+9.7%	13.12	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.62	+5.3%	13.89	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.93	+3.1%	3.68	N/A	Chart
SMN	8.96	8.67	-3.2%	8.69	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.29	-0.8%	1.22	N/A	Chart
URE	6.71	6.96	+3.7%	6.42	N/A	Chart

After a consolidation day like today, lots of charts are set up. At the same time, it could be an effect of the holiday week.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
VCI (Valassis)	18.84	18.16	N/A	Chart
GOLD (Randgold)	80.64	78.40	N/A	Chart
BVF (Biovail)	14.11	13.89	N/A	Chart
VMW (VM Ware)	43.01	42.07	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/22/09

Today the markets broke out, with the Nasdaq hitting new recovery highs while the S&P 500 fell just short. This rally could have legs; let's see if the S&P can follow the lead of the Nasdaq. We bought URE and ZSL and were stopped out of SKF.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	20.11	+19.6%	17.34	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 19.75	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.74	+11.2%	8.99	N/A	Chart
ZSL	4.71	4.72	+0.2%	4.49	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.47	+14.6%	20.67	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 22.47	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.18	+7.1%	12.93	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.35	+3.3%	13.79	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.86	+1.3%	3.68	N/A	Chart
SMN	8.96	8.83	+1.5%	8.69	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.29	-0.8%	1.22	N/A	Chart
URE	6.71	6.80	+1.3%	6.42	N/A	Chart

We're pretty heavily long here, so not too many for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
VCI (Valassis)	18.74	17.99	N/A	Chart
IPSU (Imperial Sugar)	15.09	14.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/21/09

Friday the market bounced off Thursday's lows and closed near the highs. Rangebound for so many weeks now, the market is tough to read. Will it drift sideways for another couple weeks to end the year, or will it start trending? With sturdy support just below current prices (the 50-day moving average and the bottom of the range), a breakdown doesn't appear likely in the broad S&P 500. A breakout of the range could last 2-4 weeks and take the markets to new recovery highs. However, on a sector-by-sector basis we had consumer staples (XLP) closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time in many months, joining energy and financials as the laggards of the S&P. If a breakdown does occur, it would likely be led by these sectors. You might have missed it, but the CPST buy stop triggered in the last minutes of trading Friday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	19.91	+18.4%	17.34	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 18.59	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.24	+5.5%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.93	-1.5%	24.58	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.34	+13.9%	20.67	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 21.99	Chart
CBG	12.31	13.05	+6.0%	12.41	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.15	+1.9%	13.79	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.85	+1.0%	3.49	N/A	Chart
SMN	8.96	9.07	+1.2%	8.49	N/A	Chart
CPST	1.30	1.32	+1.5%	1.22	N/A	Chart

Long-biased Monday, but open to the possibility of a move down.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
AMZN (Amazon.com)	130.09	125.64	N/A	Chart
VCI (Valassis)	18.84	17.64	N/A	Chart
URE (Ultra Real Estate)	6.71	6.42	N/A	Chart
AKAM (Akamai)	25.72	24.99	N/A	Chart
ZSL (Ultrashort Silver)	4.71	4.49	N/A	Chart
DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas)	13.24	12.83	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/18/09

The market came down pretty hard today, gapping down at the open and closing near the lows. Still, it remains within the interminable trading range of the past weeks/months. At mid-range now, it's anyone's guess what's next. We were stopped out of CMC and bought SKF and SMN.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	19.40	+15.4%	17.34	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 18.59	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.08	+3.7%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.59	+1.0%	24.58	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.19	+13.2%	20.67	Consider putting sell-stop for partial shares at 21.74	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.68	+3.0%	12.41	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.09	+1.4%	13.59	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.83	+0.5%	3.49	N/A	Chart
SMN	8.96	9.09	+1.4%	8.49	N/A	Chart

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TIF (Tiffany)	43.03	42.07	N/A	Chart
CPST (Capstone Turbine)	1.30	1.24	N/A	Chart
RDN (Radian Group)	6.56	6.12	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/17/09

After rising to a weekly high, the market dropped into the FOMC announcement and then dropped some more. After-hours the dollar broke to a 3-month high. It bottomed with the Dubai crisis around Thanksgiving and has been rising since.

At the time of the Dubai crisis, the equities market redefined its tight coupling vis-a-vis the dollar such that drops in the dollar correlated to rises in the stock market to a greater degree than rises in the dollar correlated to drops in the stock market. Today's FOMC announcement is meaningful because it compels participants to revisit this correlation. Will the Dubai redefinition stick, or will we see equities stumble?

We bought DEI today, and got stopped out of NFLX.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.32	+9.0%	17.34	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.30	+6.2%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.86	-1.8%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	22.15	+13.0%	20.67	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.92	+5.0%	12.41	N/A	Chart
DEI	13.89	14.14	+1.8%	13.59	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.85	+1.0%	3.49	N/A	Chart
CMC	17.32	17.18	-0.8%	16.82	N/A	Chart

For tomorrow, more shorts than longs, but SKF is not a re-up. Curiously, the buy entry point is the same one as before.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
RDN (Radian Group)	6.61	6.19	N/A	Chart
LVS (Las Vegas Sands)	16.33	15.65	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	25.31	24.58	N/A	Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials)	8.96	8.49	N/A	Chart
EEV (Ultrashort Emerging Markets)	11.34	10.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/16/09

More rangebound antics going into Wednesday's FOMC announcement (2:15pm ET). We bought all of yesterday's ideas.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.16	+8.0%	17.34	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	9.36	+6.8%	8.76	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.13	-0.5%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	21.61	+10.2%	20.67	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.63	+2.6%	12.03	N/A	Chart
NFLX	57.16	56.92	-0.4%	55.49	N/A	Chart
SBGI	3.81	3.64	-4.5%	3.49	N/A	Chart
CMC	17.32	17.32	0	16.82	N/A	Chart

FOMC announcement days are volatile, particularly post-announcement. If holdings (including new holdings) are doing well going into the announcement, consider taking some off.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
NG (Novagold)	5.61	5.34	N/A	Chart
DEI (Douglas Emmett)	13.89	13.59	N/A	Chart
ABAT (Advanced Battery)	3.98	3.85	3.79	Chart
LVS (Las Vegas Sands)	16.33	15.68	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/15/09

The market's pushing up against the range highs now. An upside breakout could be explosive, given the length of the consolidation. But with a Fed announcement looming on Wednesday, the market might just tread water for a couple of days. We bought VVUS and CBG and sold CAEI today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	17.88	+6.4%	16.49	N/A	Chart
VVUS	8.76	8.85	+1.0%	8.41	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.49	-3.2%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	21.28	+8.5%	20.67	N/A	Chart
CBG	12.31	12.69	+3.1%	12.03	N/A	Chart

Should the market break out tomorrow, we have holdings that will benefit. No need to add more, but if you want to, here are some that look good.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
NFLX (Netflix)	57.16	55.49	N/A	Chart
SBGI (Sinclair Broadcasting Group)	3.81	3.49	N/A	Chart
CMC (Commercial Metals)	17.32	16.82	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/14/09

Friday gave us another narrow range day and higher prices across the indices. The market's tendency to move upward the past few weeks has not resulted in much price gain, but it does give off a sense of doggedness. Despite some financial shocks and a strengthening dollar, the market remains within its trading range.

Next week we have options expiration but also on Wednesday the FOMC announcement. Not a light week, and a good chance we'll get a break of this trading range as a consequence. Given the market's elevated price levels in the face of troubling news, an upward break seems likelier. We were stopped out of MZZ and SRS Friday.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.25	+8.6%	16.71	N/A	Chart
CAEI	1.11	1.30	+17.1%	1.20	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	24.85	-1.8%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	20.10	+2.5%	18.64	N/A	Chart

Charts look ripe for some of the riskier issues to jump next week.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
GSS (Golden Star Resources)	3.66	3.44	N/A	Chart
VVUS (Vivus)	8.76	8.41	N/A	Chart
BKD (Brookdale Senior Living)	17.61	17.04	N/A	Chart
CBG (CB Richard Ellis)	12.31	12.03	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/11/09

After gapping up at the open, the market fell asleep and stayed within a narrow range. The coiling continues, and so does the ambiguity with respect to the eventual resolution of this congestion zone. We were stopped out of ARIA, QID and DXD, and bought CAEI, FST and SRS. Optionally, we booked partial profits in AONE.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.93	+12.6%	16.71	N/A	Chart
CAEI	1.11	1.33	+19.8%	1.11	Consider booking profits around current price and at 1.50 (50- and 200-dma respectively)	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.25	-0.2%	24.19	N/A	Chart
FST	19.61	19.85	+1.2%	18.64	N/A	Chart
MZZ	24.47	23.84	-2.6%	23.49	N/A	Chart
SRS	8.39	8.34	-0.6%	8.14	N/A	Chart

Oddly for a narrow range day, not many inspiring charts for tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
HOGS (Zhongpin)	14.76	14.26	N/A	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	28.31	27.23	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/10/09

After hitting monthlong trading range lows early on, the market bounced, came in, tested within a point of the low, and then bounced higher. After-hours prices have relaxed a bit. What the market does next promises to be big. After such a lengthy consolidation, it has the potential to be a sudden and powerful move. We were stopped out of JDAS and PMI today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.91	+12.5%	16.71	Consider booking partial profit near the 50-day moving around (around 19.40)	Chart
ARIA	2.36	2.56	+8.5%	2.44	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.23	-0.3%	24.19	N/A	Chart
QID	21.11	20.67	-2.1%	20.49	N/A	Chart
MZZ	24.47	24.16	-1.3%	23.49	N/A	Chart
DXD	30.29	30.12	-0.6%	29.49	N/A	Chart

We got a bounce today, so there are a couple of short ideas in tomorrow's mix. Real estate has a chart that could go either way, so there are long and short ideas there.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
CAEI (China Architectural Engineering)	1.11	1.02	N/A	Chart
CSR (China Security)	7.01	6.65	N/A	Chart
FST (Forest Oil)	19.61	18.64	N/A	Chart
URE (Ultra Real Estate)	6.51	6.25	N/A	Chart
SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate)	8.39	8.14	N/A	Chart
VXX (VIX Volatility Index ETF)	39.61	38.77	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/09/09

The market fell to mid-range levels. Now let's see if there'll be a bounce at support. The bottom of the range is at S&P 1083, and just below that is the 50-day moving average. We loaded up on short positions today and probably won't be adding more until some kind of bounce/consolidation occurs.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
JDAS	24.51	23.94	-2.3%	23.42	N/A	Chart
AONE	16.81	18.14	+7.9%	16.71	N/A	Chart
ARIA	2.36	2.62	+11.0%	2.44	N/A	Chart
PMI	2.21	2.34	+5.9%	2.11	N/A	Chart
SKF	25.31	25.37	+0.2%	24.19	N/A	Chart
QID	21.11	21.11	0	20.49	N/A	Chart
MZZ	24.47	24.18	-1.2%	23.49	N/A	Chart
DXD	30.29	30.41	+0.4%	29.49	N/A	Chart

Some longs in case the bounce occurs tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FIG (Fortress Investment Group)	4.16	3.91	N/A	Chart
IWC (Microcaps ETF)	38.06	37.42	N/A	Chart
CPST (Capstone Turbine)	1.37	1.27	N/A	Chart
HOT (Starwood Hotels)	34.01	32.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/08/09

After a wild couple of sessions to end last week, the market started off the new week with a narrow-range doji. But it feels like the market is coiling, getting ready for the next big move. The question is, will it be up or down. With weakness today in financials, real estate, energy and AAPL, the chance of a downside breakout has improved. Surprisingly, given that Friday saw a new uptrend high in the S&P, energy (XLE) hit a one-month low today. But the medium-term trend has been up, complicating the picture. We bought PMI today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
JDAS	24.51	24.61	+0.4%	23.42	N/A	Chart
AONE	16.81	17.56	+4.5%	16.71	N/A	Chart
ARIA	2.36	2.47	+4.7%	2.21	N/A	Chart
PMI	2.21	2.34	+5.9%	1.99	N/A	Chart

Lots of signals for tomorrow. Given the recent market strength, the short ETF signals look relatively strong.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
GMO (General Moly)	2.32	2.20	N/A	Chart
CAF (China Fund)	35.18	34.72	N/A	Chart
CPST (Capstone Turbine)	1.37	1.28	N/A	Chart
CHS (Chico's FAS)	14.39	13.79	N/A	Chart
GE	16.51	15.99	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	25.31	24.19	N/A	Chart
QID (Ultrashort QQQQ)	21.11	20.49	N/A	Chart
DXD (Ultrashort Dow 30)	30.29	29.49	N/A	Chart
MZZ (Ultrashort Midcaps)	24.47	23.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/07/09

After putting in a wild outside day on Thursday, the market did it again Friday, going even higher and even lower intraday. While doing so, it happily ignored resistance and support as well as existing dollar correlations.

Overnight, the market remained near Thursday's lows. Then at 8:30 AM ET, a significant surprise in the jobs announcement led to a 15-point jump in S&P futures in under 10 minutes. At the same time, the dollar started soaring and gold dumping:

About an hour and a half later, the S&P hit the peak of the day at 1119 and perhaps only then remembered that the dollar has recently been the linchpin of all markets. As the dollar continued climbing, the market fell all the way back down below where it was when the jobs report was announced, seemingly crashing. But as the dollar consolidated its gains in a sideways move, the S&P bounced hugely. Throughout the session, as the dollar rose, alternately climbing and consolidating, the S&P managed to rise disproportionately higher during the dollar's consolidation phases. Whereas, gold and the dollar remained in a tight inverse correlation, with every fall in sync with the other's rise in terms of timing AND magnitude. It's too early to say that the market has broken the dollar-S&P inverse correlation, particularly since the inverse correlation did hold in terms of timing. But Friday's action does put the correlation in doubt.

Our short holdings didn't stand a chance against the early surge and were swept away. This included our 1+ month-long holding TWM. We bought JDAS.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
JDAS	24.51	24.57	+0.2%	23.42	N/A	Chart
AONE	16.81	17.18	+2.2%	16.71	N/A	Chart
ARIA	2.36	2.44	+3.4%	2.21	N/A	Chart

A lot of variables up in the air make the market especially unclear at the moment. With every stab upward, prices are met with strong selling, yet support levels are holding in the upper half of the now 4-week trading range. The market hasn't been ready to truly break out of the range, but with the recent upward bias the ball is in the bulls' court.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
EXM (Excel Maritime)	7.54	6.92	N/A	Chart
ITRI (Itron)	63.11	61.69	N/A	Chart
PMI	2.21	1.99	N/A	Chart
GMO (General Moly)	2.36	2.20	N/A	Chart
SEF (Short Financials)	45.33	44.29	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/04/09

Today the S&P broke out to new recovery highs early on, and then fell back (just like yesterday). This time, however, the market was unable to hold on. Led by financials and real estate, the S&P ended up dropping 18 points from the high, closing near the lows of the day. The dollar, meanwhile, has been making a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Last week the markets plunged as a result of the Dubai crisis and then went on to new highs, crushing the bears. If the bounce reflected a successful ascent of that particular wall of worry, we'd need to see sustained follow-through to the upside. If instead the bounce served mainly to throw the bears off the scent, we'd see a reaction high and then the real drop. This pattern of behavior might be more recognizable at bottoms. A stock plunges, seems to hit bottom and bounces. People buy in, only to see the stock fall to new lows. This dispirits the participants, many give up, and only then does the stock truly begin its rise.

The Dubai crisis may or may not prove to be a significant event, but it certainly catalyzed the deterioration in market internals to act on price. The subsequent bounce this week shook the weak hands (like us) out, but meanwhile the technical picture worsens. In other words, there's a good chance the drop that began today is for real. Bears are w[e]ary after last week's failed campaign, and yet the evidence of deterioration has only gotten starker, particularly in the secondary indices. The Russell 2000 may have just put in its third lower high, and today price was rejected by the declining 50-day moving average:

This index is downtrending. Also, the low put in by the dollar last week was not breached when the market reached new highs today and yesterday. There are good arguments for a drop tomorrow, but it all comes down to price. Let's see if there's downside continuation tomorrow. We bought SH today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
TWM (trending)	27.58	28.69	+4.0%	27.27	N/A	Chart
AONE	16.81	17.85	+6.2%	16.71	N/A	Chart
ARIA	2.36	2.51	+10.6%	2.21	N/A	Chart
SH	53.19	53.43	+0.5%	52.57	N/A	Chart

Be very wary of opening gaps tomorrow. More likely than not, they will be faded. In fact, look to close partial long holdings into a gap up, and partial shorts into a gap down.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
JDAS (JDA Software)	24.51	23.64	N/A	Chart
H (Hyatt)	30.01	29.09	N/A	Chart
GG (Goldcorp)	46.26	44.61	N/A	Chart
EGLE (Eagle Bulk Shipping)	6.04	5.75	N/A	Chart
SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate)	8.56	7.92	N/A	Chart
MZZ (Ultrashort Midcaps)	24.66	23.49	N/A	Chart
EEV (Ultrashort Emerging Markets)	11.31	10.73	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/03/09

The S&P joined the Dow in breaking through to new uptrend highs today and then began selling off. However, unlike previous sell-offs after new topping range highs, the selling subsided by the end of the day. Could the market be gearing for a breakout to the upside, or will it fall back into the range? Tomorrow the market should let us know, by either continuing upward or falling back. I don't think it has decided yet.

We bought ARIA today.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
TWM (trending)	27.58	28.04	+1.7%	27.27	N/A	Chart
AONE	16.81	17.76	+5.6%	15.79	N/A	Chart
ARIA	2.36	2.44	+3.4%	2.21	N/A	Chart

Ideas in both directions tomorrow.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FIG (Fortress Investment Group)	4.09	3.87	N/A	Chart
DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas)	36.23	34.99	N/A	Chart
MDR (Mcdermott)	21.31	20.49	N/A	Chart
MRK (Merck)	37.24	36.44	N/A	Chart
PSQ (Short QQQQ)	45.76	45.10	N/A	Chart
SH (Short S&P 500)	53.19	52.65	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

Trade Ideas for 12/02/09

The market opened with a gap up and stayed above the gap all day. Because of the staggered way the S&P and Dow open, it's hard to see the gaps on the index charts, but SPY/DIA show these gaps well. The past couple of weeks the chart looks like it's been blown to smithereens: so much action taking place outside regular trading hours that during regular market hours we're just getting the tail ends of moves:

So it's been a tough environment to trade, both long and short. Last week's flight to safety was short-lived, as this week the dollar continues to drop, bringing everything else up. Today's gap up and hold invalidates the bearish interpretation of recent price action, but the market continues to churn, showing resilience rather than strength. We've been rangebound, and if this continues, the market should turn down from here. However, a breakout from this range may be in the cards. The trading range is over 3 weeks old now, which is far longer than these topping ranges have lasted in the recent past. It could be basing for a final hurrah. The Dow saw new recovery highs intraday today, beating highs from last week. On the other hand, the Nasdaq/S&P haven't yet broken their highs from mid-November. And as before, the secondary indices such as the Russell 2000 and the banking sector are a month or more removed from their highs and have since begun trading below their 50-day moving averages. A very mixed picture that suggests that strength in the large caps is enough to hold up the market, and weakness in the smaller issues and certain sectors is not enough to bring the market down.

We were stopped out of the majority of our positions. If you chose to sell only on a close below the sell-stop, use today's low as the new sell-stop. We bought AONE. HMY gapped up above the buy price and never came back down.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
TWM (trending)	27.58	28.71	+4.1%	27.27	N/A	Chart
AONE	16.81	16.72	-0.5%	15.79	N/A	Chart

The question for the next few days is whether the market is basing for a move up, or if the topping range pattern holds true to form. The setups on the short side are not ideal, so be cautious in your risk.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
ABK (Ambac)	0.86	0.76	N/A	Chart
RTN (Raytheon)	52.06	51.48	50.85	Chart
ARIA (ARIAD)	2.36	2.21	2.13	Chart
SH (Short S&P 500)	53.28	52.82	N/A	Chart
MZZ (Ultrashort Midcaps)	24.66	24.08	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.