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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Trade Ideas for 12/17/09

After rising to a weekly high, the market dropped into the FOMC announcement and then dropped some more. After-hours the dollar broke to a 3-month high. It bottomed with the Dubai crisis around Thanksgiving and has been rising since.

At the time of the Dubai crisis, the equities market redefined its tight coupling vis-a-vis the dollar such that drops in the dollar correlated to rises in the stock market to a greater degree than rises in the dollar correlated to drops in the stock market. Today's FOMC announcement is meaningful because it compels participants to revisit this correlation. Will the Dubai redefinition stick, or will we see equities stumble?

We bought DEI today, and got stopped out of NFLX.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Addl Exit Guideline Chart
AONE 16.81 18.32 +9.0% 17.34 N/A Chart
VVUS 8.76 9.30 +6.2% 8.76 N/A Chart
SKF 25.31 24.86 -1.8% 24.19 N/A Chart
FST 19.61 22.15 +13.0% 20.67 N/A Chart
CBG 12.31 12.92 +5.0% 12.41 N/A Chart
DEI 13.89 14.14 +1.8% 13.59 N/A Chart
SBGI 3.81 3.85 +1.0% 3.49 N/A Chart
CMC 17.32 17.18 -0.8% 16.82 N/A Chart


For tomorrow, more shorts than longs, but SKF is not a re-up. Curiously, the buy entry point is the same one as before.

New Trade Ideas
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
RDN (Radian Group) 6.61 6.19 N/A Chart
LVS (Las Vegas Sands) 16.33 15.65 N/A Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials) 25.31 24.58 N/A Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials) 8.96 8.49 N/A Chart
EEV (Ultrashort Emerging Markets) 11.34 10.99 N/A Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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