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Saturday, May 16, 2009

Trade Ideas for 05/18/09

The S&P made a lower low Friday, but the pace of this latest decline has slowed to such an extent that it brings up the possibility that it'll be over soon. Providing the base for a potential bounce is a medium-term support level just below the current price:

However, under the theory that the markets are more correlated than not, the Russell 2000 index shows a different picture: support broken. The Russell 2000 has led the S&P in this uptrend, and chances are it's continuing to lead.

With the long-term trend of the past year being down, medium-term trend of the past few weeks being up, and short-term trend of the past few days being down, we have very mixed messages. The market isn't likely to continue trading in its current narrow range, so we'll know soon what it's going to be.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Additional Exit Guideline Chart
DGP 18.68 20.13 +7.8% 19.49 N/A Chart
SDS 59.89 61.37 +2.5% 59.39 N/A Chart
QID 37.92 39.28 +3.6% 37.35 N/A Chart
SRS 23.01 24.46 +6.3% 22.30 N/A Chart
HNI 16.84 16.60 -1.4% 15.99 N/A Chart
GG 32.64 33.44 +2.5% 32.44 N/A Chart


For Monday, mostly short ideas, but also SSO in case the market does bounce at the support level mentioned above. QID is a re-recommendation; if you already own it and elect it on Monday, move the sell-stop for all positions to 37.91. And as strong as gold has been, silver has been stronger, so I've thrown in SLV in case of further strength from this group.

New Trade Ideas
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
QID (Ultrashort QQQQ) 39.92 37.91 N/A Chart
SMN (Ultrashort Basic Materials) 22.91 20.65 N/A Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000) 52.06 49.09 N/A Chart
SSO (Ultra S&P 500) 25.06 23.95 N/A Chart
SLV (Silver ETF) 14.07 13.64 N/A Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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