Update 07/16/09

Ever since the low last Wednesday at S&P 869, I've been highlighting while pooh-poohing the possibility of a rally unfolding, even as we accumulated long positions. I guess I should have done less pooh-poohing now that we're over 60 points higher! The pace of the rise has been blazingly fast, and we are extended to the point that no charts look right for new entries. That said, the downtrend from June 11th may well be over, and if it is, it would have lasted about a month (June 11 - July 8) against an uptrend of about 3 months (Mar 6 - June 11), which feels about right. The alternative view is that a symmetrical head-and-shoulders top is forming, in which case the market shouldn't get much higher than today's high for at least the next two weeks (and indeed could move below 800). Two very opposed possibilities, and we're at a crossroads right now, so let's get a sense of how the next pullback plays out before taking on new positions.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	5.29	5.94	+12.3%	5.75	N/A	Chart
CFSG	12.36	13.20	+6.8%	12.49	N/A	Chart
AEIS	10.21	11.26	+10.3%	10.62	N/A	Chart
AHL	23.43	24.68	+5.3%	23.88	N/A	Chart