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Monday, January 11, 2010

Update 01/12/10

The market gapped up at the open and then fell dramatically. By the end of the day, the Dow had surpassed its early highs in contrast to the other averages. We were stopped into BX and CTIC on the early surge and promptly stopped out when the market fell, and we were also taken out of HOLX for a loss and PDC for a gain.

The opening surge was like a miniature buying climax followed by a mini-collapse. One common pattern is for the market to subsequently recover in the coming days, surge to higher highs in a true buying climax before the real collapse. While there's potential for gains to be made in new positions, the risk outweighs the reward. Instead, we will try to sell our existing holdings in the next few days, unless the market stops us out of them for us.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Addl Exit Guideline Chart
SVM 7.04 7.41 +5.3% 7.04 Consider setting sell-stop on partial position at 7.22 Chart
GE 15.68 16.76 +6.9% 16.49 N/A Chart
CPST 1.30 1.42 +9.2% 1.35 N/A Chart
SOLF 7.71 10.42 +35.1% 9.71 N/A Chart
RDN 7.77 9.13 +17.5% 8.91 N/A Chart


It feels early to be short and late to be long, so no ideas for tomorrow.

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