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Friday, October 17, 2008

Gap in GLD filled

A gap in the daily chart occurs when price jumps from one day to the next such that there is no price in common between the two days. It appears on a candlestick chart as a gap, hence the name.

Something along the lines of 90% of gaps are eventually filled, meaning price subsequently goes back up or down to the gap and all the prices in between are filled in. Gold filled its gap from mid-September today. I think of gaps as outstanding obligations. Before a chart can continue its eventual move, it will need to revisit the gaps it left behind. That doesn't mean gold will take off after this; to me it simply means that gold is free to take off now. Keep in mind that some of the best technicians in the business say that if gold doesn't hold above $750 (spot price), then it won't make the run that so many (including myself) think it's going to.

One final counter is that since gold is a 24-hour market, it's hard to say whether gaps need to be filled. However, all gaps before have been filled. In the chart below, I drew rectangles around certain gaps and their eventual fills, and an oval around the latest gap and fill.



The fact that gaps are almost always filled is one reason why they say SELL THE GAPS!!!!

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