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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Trade Ideas for 12/18/08

The market's preparing for a big day, and that day is Thursday. Tomorrow we shall see at least one of the following: (1) a breakout. (2) a fake-out. The market is between medium-term resistance above and short-term support below, and it spent the day coiling in between the two areas.

With 11 positions, we are set in the event of a breakout. In the event of a fake-out, sell your positions at the stops. In fact, for a few of our positions, I recommend getting out within the first 15 minutes of trading as they have hit short term resistance, or, in the case of LIHR, look like they may have hit the peak of an a-b-c countertrend move. In the event of a fake-out, consider doing a stop-and-reverse on your positions. Sell double the number of shares you own, effectively closing your long and opening a short, risking to today's high. Only do this after 10:15 A.M.; if the position falls below the sell-stop prior to that time, just close it.

We bought the full roster of yesterday's ideas. When the market is roaring, it's natural for the system to rack up a lot of positions. If the market truly is strong, and strong price action lies ahead, then feel free to sell positions and add new ones on further strength. Just be aware that in this bear market, there has been a tendency for the market to fall apart right when it looks like it's gathering steam. But maybe this time will be different; we shall see.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Additional Exit Guideline Chart
JWN 13.06 13.98 +7.1% 12.69 Consider selling within the first 15 minutes of trading Chart
LIHR 16.21 19.23 +18.6% 17.10 Consider selling within the first 15 minutes of trading Chart
TRN 15.21 15.85 +4.2% 14.24 Consider selling within the first 15 minutes of trading Chart
X 40.71 42.12 +3.5% 36.06 Consider selling on a close < 38.74 Chart
GLBL 3.82 3.62 -5.2% 3.24 N/A Chart
CHS 3.72 3.85 +3.5% 3.41 Consider selling on a close < 3.59 Chart
FAF 28.07 28.16 +0.3% 25.56 Consider selling on a close < 26.53 Chart
NFLX 29.11 28.79 -1.1% 27.52 Consider selling on a close < 28.78 Chart
V 54.61 55.36 +1.4% 52.73 Consider selling on a close < 54.05 Chart
VMW 25.21 24.46 -3.0% 23.32 N/A Chart
CNX 32.64 32.37 -0.8% 28.99 Consider selling on a close < 30.54 Chart


I don't recommend carrying more than 12 full positions (however you want to define a full position). We're at 11 now, so I won't be recommending as many ideas until that number starts falling. Most crucially, do not elect either of tomorrow's ideas until 10:15 AM.

Trade Ideas for 12/18/08
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
XRX (Xerox) 8.07 7.49 N/A Chart
GRMN (Garmin) 20.73 18.99 N/A Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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