Trade Ideas for 03/09/09

After another full day of serious selling, a sharp reversal materialized Friday in the last half hour of trading, the kind that sometimes signals the beginnings of a multi-day rally. I say sometimes because Wednesday's action was similar, yet Thursday we saw further downside. We must wait for confirmation before concluding that the upleg has begun. Specifically, prices have to get and stay above Friday's highs. In this case, I'm optimistic; the late-day rally had suddenness and urgency, and it gave nothing back even after hours.

We bought QID and DUG, and these will work well in case Monday fails to build on the late Friday gains.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
SWKS	6.61	6.94	+5.0%	6.14	Consider selling on a close < 6.62	Chart
DUG	34.84	33.51	-3.8%	31.63	N/A	Chart
QID	67.74	67.95	+0.3%	63.54	N/A	Chart

I'm planning to risk a little more than usual Monday. If a rally should erupt here, there's a good chance it'll be a big one because of the pressure that has built up over the course of this leg down.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
DDUP (Data Domain)	12.97	12.21	11.99	Chart
DXO (Crude Oil Double Long)	2.51	2.22	1.96	Chart
CME (CME Group)	191.58	176.10	N/A	Chart
PM (Philip Morris)	33.73	32.49	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.