Trade Ideas for 03/23/2009

Friday's market was mixed, with a downside bias. Some stocks fell pretty hard, some continued Thursday's pullback but stabilized at the close, and others consolidated without going below Thursday's low. Hard to say what's next: maybe a bounce before another leg lower, maybe no bounce at all, just new lows. The one scenario I don't see is higher highs in the major averages. After a furious two-week rally, the market could use a breather.

My personal belief is that the market will prolong the ambiguity between the possibilities before us: that a new upleg (Primary B) is underway vs. a protracted move to new lows. Market action for the next few weeks may continue to support both possibilities.

We lost JBHT and BHI on Friday, but not before booking a 12% and 7% profit, respectively. We bought SRS and REW.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
ITU	9.66	10.78	+11.6%	10.49	N/A	Chart
DXO	2.51	3.02	+20.3%	2.53	N/A	Chart
SRS	66.31	70.94	+7.0%	62.09	N/A	Chart
REW	67.36	68.93	+2.3%	64.66	N/A	Chart
AVA	13.47	14.15	+5.0%	13.94	N/A	Chart
RIMM	42.19	41.68	-1.2%	38.76	N/A	Chart

The reflation trade looks healthy after a day of consolidating gains, and Monday's ideas represent four ways to play.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
TLT (20+ Year TBond Fund)	105.67	103.77	N/A	Chart
GLD (Gold ETF)	94.78	93.12	N/A	Chart
EGO (El Dorado Gold)	9.01	8.16	N/A	Chart
GGB (Gerdau)	5.29	4.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.