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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Trade Ideas for 09/24/09

The markets hit a new intraday high today after the Fed announcement, followed by an extremely swift drop to close at the lows of the day. The daily chart doesn't look quite so dramatic:

but on the intraday chart, it's a swan dive:

This bear market rally has to end sometime, and it may have been today. But there are a couple of competing Elliott Wave counts, and the textbook one would have us drop no lower than 1040, followed by a rally to new highs. Let's first see if there's follow-through on today's decline. We sold DXD for a loss and bought JAZZ and FXP (but only if we didn't own it already.)

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Addl Exit Guideline Chart
FXP 8.96 9.17 +2.3% 8.43 N/A Chart
JAZZ 10.01 9.72 -2.9% 9.09 N/A Chart
DUG 14.31 14.32 +0.1% 13.73 N/A Chart
WFR 17.58 18.34 +4.3% 18.14 N/A Chart
EL 37.18 36.98 -0.5% 36.23 N/A Chart


A full slate of short ideas tomorrow, plus one long. Thursdays can be very tricky; one pattern that happens often is a continuation of Wednesday's trend for the first 30 minutes, and then a reversal. Therefore, I would be cautious about taking on more than 2 shorts in the first 30 minutes of trade.

New Trade Ideas
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
SOLF (Solar Fun) 7.01 6.49 N/A Chart
SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate) 9.56 8.71 N/A Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials) 25.11 23.58 N/A Chart
QID (Ultrashort QQQQ) 23.17 22.06 N/A Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000) 28.06 26.65 N/A Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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