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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Trade Ideas for 10/01/08

I occasionally buy gold bullion, and when I do, I get it through CNI. Here's a screenshot of their page today:



I remember reading that the US mint had temporarily halted production of Buffalo coins, but to see so many other coins out of stock is a shock. Gold took a tumble today, but if its chart should set up in the next few sessions, it'll be a signal on the list.

Meanwhile there's a poll on CNBC as to whether or not the Fed should cut interest rates now that the bailout failed. Manipulating a demand-side factor will have no effect if the problem is on the supply-side. What we have right now is a credit crunch. Banks need the cash they have, and they don't have much to lend—similar to how CNI is out of gold coins for sale. All the power in the world to change the price of gold wouldn't make a difference; you are still not going to be able to get a Buffalo coin from them. Similarly, changing interest rates will not solve the credit crunch since the problem isn't lack of willing borrowers, it's that banks are "out of stock."

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Additional Exit Guideline Chart
SLW 10.21 8.15 -20.2% 7.99 None Chart
SIGA 4.01 3.75 -6.5% 3.19 Consider selling on a close < 3.48 Chart


Barrick has held up despite gold's gyrations, and AIG might have enough oomph to fill that big gap on its chart (target is 11.50).

Trade Ideas for 10/01/08
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
ABX (Barrick Gold) 39.61 35.92 32.95 Chart
AIG 3.57 2.92 2.49 Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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