Trade Ideas for 9/24/08

As suspected, a pullback in the commodities occurred today. It was on the deeper side, and it may deepen further in the next couple of days. However, more than two days of pullback and I'm out, as the commodities charts are bouncing rather than moving in a solid uptrend. Still, this is a sector with readable charts, which is more than I can say for the charts of the major indices. Most likely because of the short selling restrictions, the major index charts are not following tried and true patterns and just look weird. We bought SIGA today, which jumped out in an early breakout and then lost a bit of steam.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
TVL	6.06	6.63	+9.4%	6.26	Consider selling on a negative close. I think it's up or out for this one.	Chart
SLW	10.21	10.19	-0.2%	8.99	Consider selling on a close < 9.99	Chart
SIGA	4.01	3.94	-1.7%	3.19	Consider selling on a close < 3.69	Chart

While the market as a whole is hard to read, individual charts look readable for the most part. Nevertheless, exercise caution as this is new territory for the US market. I've included a low-risk double-down type bet on TVL; if elected, move the sell-stop on the original position to 6.49.

Trade Ideas for 09/24/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
STSI (Star Scientific)	4.06	3.64	2.96	Chart
DBA (DB Agriculture ETF)	33.61	32.77	30.99	Chart
TVL (LIN TV)	7.16	6.49	n/a	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.