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Thursday, September 18, 2008

Trade Ideas for 9/19/08

By my read, we hit a 5th wave peak in the UltraShorts today around 1:00PM EST. Here is an updated snapshot of the QID chart I posted yesterday:



These 5 waves are really subwaves of a wave of higher degree, so while we have what looks to be a temporary tradable bottom, it is by no means "the" bottom. 5th wave peaks are crazy times. The buying pressure is so intense that it doesn't seem possible to exit your position. Every minute price jumps another 20 cents upward. I hope the guidance I gave you yesterday helped you to exit your SDS position as close to the peak of 81.72 as possible. I wimped out and exited before the noontime half-hour of frenzied buying and selling, at an average of 77 and change. I'd give that maybe a B-/C+ given that SDS hung out above 77 for the better part of the day! For the record, SDS closed at 72.50 and in after-hours went even lower. Officially we got stopped out at 74.37, for the hardest 10% profit ever earned. MWA was elected near the open and stopped out mid-day, but TVL took.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Additional Exit Guideline Chart
TVL 6.06 6.49 +7.1% 5.64 None; looks good Chart


In hindsight there were some great chart setups yesterday in the financials, particularly in regional banks and REITs. The only one on my own list was TSFG, which I ended up not taking! I could only find wide risk setups for tomorrow, unfortunately. It will take a day or two for the low-risk setups to appear, so you can always just wait for the "fat pitches."

Trade Ideas for 9/18/08
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
ZUMZ (Zumiez) 18.01 15.59 15.27 Chart
BEXP (Brigham Exploration) 13.51 12.29 10.79 Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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