Trade Idea for 11/07/08

No rally materialized, and everything pretty much finished at their lows. After punishing the bears on Tuesday they decided to kill the bulls yesterday and today. Tomorrow's action will let us know if we're headed to the lows of October 10th or whether the market can form the right shoulder of a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern and thereby rally. That's a lot to ask from a Friday, but the jobs report does come out in the morning. Whether it's good or bad, there's the possibility that the market will treat the data as a reason to buy (or sell, for that matter).

Today's action illustrates why taking a loss early is much better than holding through the sell-stop. What seemed bad went on to become much, much worse. The nature of this B-wave rally is starting to take shape, and it's not pretty. It looks like one of those sideways range-bound B-waves, which can't really be called a sucker's rally since there's no rally. A good example of a similar B-wave was the market action this past summer.

THO got sold, and BVN was bought and sold. Early action in BVN was very confusing. There were trades in it, but the bid-ask spreads were huge, which made it seem like there wasn't a market. So I hope you weren't caught in that action. Upshot is, no open positions. As for tomorrow, very few charts look good, and the one I have is very low volume. If you plan to trade it, trade carefully (e.g., wait until 10:15 ET, risk less, etc.)

Trade Idea for 11/07/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
SIRF (SIRF Tech.)	1.36	1.19		Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.