Trade Idea for 11/13/08

I've noticed that Wednesdays tend to be continuation days, and today was no exception. Prices drifted steadily lower throughout the day, accelerating into (and after) the close. The market is now terribly oversold, and tomorrow it's either going to fall apart completely or start rallying. Thursday is tricky and can be the day of reversal; but we'll just have to wait and see.

QID performed admirably today, but it has also traced out an a-b-c off its 50-day moving average. The risk is high that its move is nearly done. Accordingly, I have moved the stop up tightly, and furthermore will sell the position on a down close. On the flip side, if the market should fall apart in the coming days, QID will greatly benefit.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
QID	73.47	81.40	+10.8%	75.99	Sell on a negative close; consider selling a portion at market open.	Chart

One chart has been acting as though nothing of importance is happening.

Trade Idea for 11/13/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FDO (Family Dollar)	28.21	26.99	26.32	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.