Trade Ideas for 12/01/08

Not a whole lot of action Friday as the market took a little breather in the half day it had, and I'm not sure we can read much into it. Monday will be an important day, as it sets the tone after a week that could easily be dismissed as a holiday week. By my read, the charts look very encouraging, and even more encouraging is the sudden lack of pundits saying that we have hit a bottom. Just a weird thing about the stock market; if a majority of people think something will happen, it probably won't. A lot of people have felt so burned lately that they have gotten pre-emptively short, expecting the next big drop.

Although I'll be surprised if we don't get a pullback sometime Monday, simply because we've had so many up days in a row, I am short-term bullish on the market. I've been waiting for the sucker's "rally" to begin, one that lasts on the order of weeks rather than hours, and I think we might be in it already. The steepness of the climb since two Thursdays ago shows bullish determination. Then again, the bears have showed so much strength in the past two months that it's unwise to count them out.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
GLD	74.27	80.31	+8.1%	79.27	Look to add on a break above 81.73	Chart
LNG	2.94	3.14	+6.8%	2.64	Consider selling on a close < 2.79	Chart
AN	7.01	8.54	+21.8%	7.95	None	Chart
ACM	21.84	26.49	+21.3%	25.63	Consider selling on a close < 25.83	Chart
UGP	22.62	22.04	-2.6%	21.24	Consider selling on a close < 21.59	Chart
DBA	24.86	24.68	-0.7%	23.99	Consider selling on a close < 24.43	Chart
AMZN	43.46	42.70	-1.7%	39.59	Consider selling on a close < 42.22	Chart
EWT	7.63	7.78	+1.9%	7.31	Consider selling on a close < 7.64	Chart

Many charts, more than ever, are set up the way I like for Monday. A big part of this is due to Friday's low-volume consolidations, so I take it with a grain of salt. A couple of our current holdings look good for re-adds.

Trade Ideas for 12/01/08

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
GLD (SPDR Gold ETF)	81.73	79.27	N/A	Chart
LNG (Cheniere Energy)	3.19	2.79	2.64	Chart
HMY (Harmony Gold)	8.78	8.29	7.99	Chart
PCL (Plum Creek Timber)	37.53	35.58	33.75	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.