Trade Idea for 04/15/09

Today's retail sales number stopped the rally dead in its tracks. Perhaps a dose of reality was dished, and the urgency of the decline, especially in the financial sector, sure makes it seem as though the rally's days are numbered. Until we breach last week's low, however, the market is still in an uptrend. Even if it's an uptrend that's losing momentum, somehow trends find a way to stay alive a bit longer than you'd think. So let's take it slowly, and see what the market comes up with next. Tomorrow, more economic reports before the bell and then throughout the day.

Today we sold CMED and UAUA for profits, and PLD for a loss.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Additional Exit Guideline	Chart
MELI	17.39	21.76	+25.1%	20.99	N/A	Chart
TMX	16.72	16.96	+1.4%	16.62	N/A	Chart
LDK	7.64	8.46	+10.7%	7.57	N/A	Chart
CLS	3.24	4.52	+39.5%	4.39	N/A	Chart

With today's drop, the risk/reward picture has changed such that it's not a great bet at this point to take on new positions. If you do elect the following idea, risk should be on the small side.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
JEC (Jacobs Engineering)	44.41	42.36	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.