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Thursday, April 16, 2009

Update 04/17/09

New uptrend highs today, and a close just above the prior high in the S&P. That's it for the good news.

Higher highs are encouraging, but each push needs to go substantially higher than the last to sustain price momentum, and to keep alive the possibility that this rally still has much more left in the tank. It could be that today's late-day surge isn't over yet, and we'll get carryover tomorrow. However, the dramatic way price fell in the last half hour doesn't help that case. Here's a close-up of that late-day collapse:

Tomorrow is options expiration day, which can be volatile in either direction. Don't rule out the possibility of a run to 900+, but the only way the market can prove that there's another significant leg up is to wow us with a big jump in price. Until that happens, upside from here appears limited: perhaps another bump up to the upper trendline sometime tomorrow or Monday to complete the pattern. We'll know by Monday in any case.

We bought DIG and JEC today.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Additional Exit Guideline Chart
MELI 17.39 22.40 +28.8% 21.59 N/A Chart
TMX 16.72 17.01 +1.7% 16.86 N/A Chart
LDK 7.64 8.41 +10.1% 8.09 N/A Chart
CLS 3.24 4.77 +47.2% 4.42 N/A Chart
JEC 44.41 46.15 +3.9% 42.99 N/A Chart
DIG 24.46 24.15 -1.3% 22.99 N/A Chart


Nothing for tomorrow. Until further notice, the market is telling us to prepare for a reversal.

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