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Thursday, June 4, 2009

Trade Ideas for 06/05/09

The market recovered from the recent pullback and rose today, falling just short of filling the gap left by yesterday's negative open. Weak action, however, casts some doubt on the notion that the market can reach new highs without some help from, say, tomorrow's unemployment report. However, the Russell 2000, Apple, Baidu, Google and Goldman Sachs all made new highs. So even if breadth wasn't great, leadership was.

Will the market continue moving up? My Elliott count says it will; there's a little 5-wave pattern beginning from May 26th that implies new highs. But the current move up is the final wave in that pattern, so to optimize the trade we want to get out of our longs soon. Just to be safe, let's take partial profits on our positions at tomorrow's close, or on a sizable gap up open, and by partial I mean at least 20%. There's also the possibility that we get a 5th wave extension, so there's a danger of getting out too early. But at this stage of the game, I'd rather err on the side of fear than greed.

We bought HW and UWM today, and if you took my suggestion from yesterday, booked some profit in one or both.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Add'l Exit Guideline Chart
SSO 25.06 27.45 +9.5% 26.43 N/A Chart
ASIA 20.68 21.38 +3.4% 20.70 N/A Chart
UYG 4.11 4.26 +3.6% 3.94 N/A Chart
JACK 27.01 27.32 +1.1% 26.79 N/A Chart
CPSL 2.26 2.58 +14.2% 2.39 N/A Chart
HW 4.27 4.60 +7.7% 3.98 N/A Chart
UWM 20.86 21.00 +0.7% 19.85 N/A Chart


Even at this late stage, or perhaps especially so, we might see some stocks really accelerate to the upside. The first three of tomorrow's ideas fit the bill of potential runners. And, just in case we get a reversal tomorrow, I've thrown in a short. All of these should be played small, and strongly consider booking partial profit on an advantageous close.

New Trade Ideas
Ticker Entry Exit A Exit C Chart
SPAR (Spartan Motors) 10.48 9.83 N/A Chart
ORI (Old Republic) 10.71 10.29 N/A Chart
BARE (Bare Escentuals) 10.41 9.68 N/A Chart
SDS (Ultrashort S&P 500) 55.38 53.16 N/A Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.

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