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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Update 6/17/09

The mood has quickly turned from bullish to bearish. Perhaps too quickly. After closing just about at the lows of the day, the S&P (Chart) is now just a hair above its declining 200-day moving average, as good a place as any to consolidate. The last time we saw two consecutive red candles with little to no shadows (i.e., something close to two red Marubozu candles) was late March, and back then a period of consolidation followed. Of course, with all the pent-up bearishness that has built up the past 3 months, the market may just continue plunging tomorrow. It's worth noting, however, that downward momentum has slowed a little bit: today's candle is shorter than yesterday's.

We sold FITB for a small profit. For tomorrow, and probably until we get some consolidation, no new signals. For those with a bearish bias, yesterday's buy points for QID and DUG, while possible, look a bit far off. Prices are likelier to revisit the day's lows in those issues, as well as other inverse ETFs.

Current Holdings
Ticker Basis Closing
Price
Perf. Sell-Stop Add'l Exit Guideline Chart
DUG 16.54 17.14 +3.6% 14.99 N/A Chart
SCC 61.84 65.96 +6.7% 58.27 N/A Chart
QID 32.81 33.82 +3.1% 30.85 N/A Chart

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