Despite all the gyration the past couple of weeks, the S&P has traded in a relatively narrow 30-point range. In other words, it has been consolidating. In June, a similar period of consolidation resolved to the downside. The same thing could happen this time, and one of my Elliott Wave counts from last weekend supports such an outcome, but other counts suggest further upside. For example, the following count has the market ready to take off on a Wave 3 starting Monday (and certainly the fast move in the last half hour of Friday's action looks Wave 3-like):
Elliott Wave really isn't of much help in the short term because too many counts oppose one another. In the medium term, it makes no bones about the fact that there isn't much upside left to this bear market rally.
We sold DGP and SFLY for losses Friday.
| Current Holdings | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Basis | Closing Price |
Perf. | Sell-Stop | Addl Exit Guideline | Chart |
| SRS | 12.31 | 12.28 | -0.2% | 11.19 | N/A | Chart |
| FXP | 10.04 | 10.08 | +0.4% | 8.99 | N/A | Chart |
| TMX | 16.82 | 17.33 | +3.0% | 16.87 | N/A | Chart |
| SWC | 6.93 | 6.79 | -2.0% | 6.44 | N/A | Chart |
More longs than shorts, in case we take off on a Wave 3 Monday.
| Ticker | Entry | Exit A | Exit C | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V (Visa) | 68.89 | 67.49 | N/A | Chart |
| DUG (Ultrashort Oil & Gas) | 17.22 | 16.36 | N/A | Chart |
| TIE (Titanium Metals) | 8.41 | 7.99 | N/A | Chart |
| LNC (Lincoln National) | 24.46 | 23.39 | N/A | Chart |
| SKF (Ultrashort Financials) | 30.52 | 28.11 | N/A | Chart |
Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.
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