Trade Ideas for 08/03/09

Friday was a small range day, and one whose actions I don't feel comfortable characterizing except in retrospect. If there's a higher high next week, I can look back and say, "the bulls consolidated Thursday's big advance in preparation for a final push." If a sizable drop occurs early next week, I'll say, "they tried to push it higher but couldn't, and then things fell apart." Either way you look at it, the end of the rally is near, and in the final few days the question from an Elliott Wave perspective centers around Wave 5 of 5. Either it's done, or there's another (quick) push coming.



If we do move higher, upside may be limited in time, but there's still quite a bit of room (as much as 20—30 S&P points). Just be prepared to sell some or all longs on strength, or set progressively higher sell-stop prices based on intraday action. The sell-stops in this table are to be considered worst-case scenarios.

Current Holdings
Ticker	Basis	Closing Price	Perf.	Sell-Stop	Addl Exit Guideline	Chart
TQNT	7.11	7.18	+1.0%	6.77	N/A	Chart
COF	30.81	30.70	-0.4%	29.64	N/A	Chart
CWTR	6.87	7.34	+6.8%	6.99	N/A	Chart

Some short ideas for tomorrow, but also a couple of longs. For BGU, if elected do not hold overnight. And if you understand the risk and the margin cost, the entry/exit on BGU can be flipped for a short entry—this trade can be held overnight.

New Trade Ideas

Ticker	Entry	Exit A	Exit C	Chart
FXP (Ultrashort Xinhua 25)	10.36	9.48	N/A	Chart
TWM (Ultrashort Russell 2000)	35.11	33.93	N/A	Chart
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)	35.73	34.11	N/A	Chart
KBH (KB Home)	17.06	16.31	N/A	Chart
BGU (Large Cap Bull 3x)	42.86	40.99	N/A	Chart

Please refer to "How To Trade The Ideas" (right-hand side) to read this table.